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Original Message
"One has to prevail before mass market acceptance is possible and economies of scale can kick in to bring cost
Posted by Jack G on September 1, 2007 at 10:35:52:
Economies of scale may never really kick in for BD well. The replicators are very expensive, and the cost is and may always be expensive. Conservative estimates show that BD-25s are about $0.90 more expenive to replicate than HD-30s, and BD-50s are about $4 more expensive. Even after working on BD-50s for years now, yeilds by Sony are still only about 40%. Face it, blu-ray is not now, and may never be able to practically replace DVD due to its difficulties.
OTOH, HD DVD is cheaper, faster and has yeilds approaching 95%. There's also already bout 300 replicators out there already that can make HD DVDs with little downtime-all DVD replcators made in the last few years are made to make DVDs or HD DVDs if desired.
I still believe that both can coexist as large scale niche produts. However, if you are into the "quickening", and feel there can be only one, HD DVD is n a far better position to fight DVD, than BD.
That of course, is just my $0.02. Take it for what its worth.
Jack