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Original Message

RE: DVD sales shrunk in 2008 for the first year since the format's launch

Posted by Jazz Inmate on April 14, 2008 at 17:12:20:

>> The DVD format was shrinking for the last few years. <<

That's a bit vague. I recently read that DVD sales have grown every year since format's inception until the numbers for '07 came out, which showed a decline. (See link at bottom.) I certainly don't believe everything I read on the internet, but those numbers seemed to be supported by reliable sources and unless you have other sources (please post) I have no reason to doubt the report.

>> In fact, that's the reason Blu-Ray and HD-DVD was created - because the studios got greedy with the new revenue stream of selling movies and the decline made them try to generate more sales. <<

While your distrust of studio motivation may seem seductive, the fact is that we have been using a 60 year old technology in NTSC that relies on relatively few lines of resolution halved (interlaced) and drawn fast enough by a cathode ray tube to trick your eye into thinking you're seeing a solid picture. Now that the processing power of home electronics is infinitely greater and display devices used for TVs are much more advanced, the time is ripe for introducing a new format that allows us to enjoy our favorite films with much better video (and audio) resolution. Anyone who has compared DVD (even upscaled) to a native 1080p picture has observed DVD to be inferior. It's time to adopt new technology, beyond NTSC's capabilities.

>> Can't believe you're going by analysts predictions. These analysts change their predictions every month based on recent data. When Blu-Ray sales fail to take a major push, they'll adjust their predictions again. <<

Actually I predict Blu-ray will grow faster than the analysts are saying, and so far it seems that is the case, helped in large part by the PS3's installed base of early adopters.

>> DVD isn't going away, and Blu-Ray will remain a niche. Take that to the bank. <<

A significant percentage (about 10%) of all sales of No Country for Old Men have been Blu-ray. Similar observations are made of other titles where the BD and DVD are released simultaneously. Do you really think those BD numbers won't increase as the installed base of BD players increases?

Oh, and since all BD players also play DVD (and upscale them), there is no push to make DVD go away. The fact seems to be that the public is slowly losing interest with standard definition and slowly gaining interest in high definition. If you look at the FCC's mandate to end traditional broadcasts in 2009, you'll start to understand why.
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Call it, friendo.