Video Asylum TVs, VCRs, DVD players, Home Theater systems and more.

---

[ Follow Ups ] [ Post Followup ] Thread: [ Display  All  Email ] [ Video Asylum ]

---

[ Alert Moderator ]

---

I don't know if I trust that poll…

Posted by David Aiken (A) on May 20, 2008 at 05:14:05

In Reply to: Not so good news for Blu-ray according to recent poll. posted by Audiophilander on May 20, 2008 at 02:25:05:

Quote 1: "Harris Interactive surveyed 2,529 U.S. adults from April 7 through 15, and found that only four percent actually own a Blu-ray player."

Quote 2: "Five percent of those asked currently own the PlayStation 3."

Hmmmm. Only 4% of the 2,529 people polled own a BD player yet 5% of the same 2529 own a PS3 which is a BD player. They could at least have been honest and said 9% of the people polled own a player capable of playing BD discs but that 55% of the players were PS3's and that not all of those PS3s were used for playing BD movies. Even better, they could actually have asked how many of those PS3's were actually being used for playing BD movies.

That's the first problem.

Second problem. They say "Only nine percent of those asked plan to buy a Blu-ray player within the next year." Well, for a start they don't say how many people were planning to buy a PS3 since they didn't class it as a BD player in the first round of figures. That would probably increase player numbers considerably more. Then, if only 4% of people currently own BD players—ignoring the PS3—another 9% buying players in the next year slightly more than trebles that 4% and, even including all PS3s in the current figure, a 9% BD player uptake in the next 12 months doubles the numbers and those numbers would have to go higher than that when new PS3's are taken into account, unless of course they're playing unfair with the numbers and including PS3s in the 9% when they didn't include them in the 4% figure for players in the first set of numbers.

Not good number crunching there.

BD has been around for nearly 2 years now and for the first 20 odd months of that period there was a format war going on which certainly scared some people away. For those that didn't stay away, numbers were split between BD and HD DVD. An uptake of 9% of people buying BD players—excluding the PS3—in the next year, a doubling of uptake over the first 2 years, does represent an exponential growth rate and that's not too bad, especially if PS3 numbers are also swelling the figures. Put that 4% of BD players, 5% of PS3s, and another 9% uptake of BD players together and you've got an 18% total after 3 years, say 20% or more if you add PS3s over the next year in as well. That's better than a fifth of the population which isn't too bad a bit over 1 year after the format war ended. I'd actually be inclined to view those figures with some optimism.

Of course the big question mark in my analysis is how many of the 5% with PS3s are watching BD movies on them and it looks like they didn't ask that question. Given that fact and the way they reported the numbers they did get, I have to wonder whether the people who designed that particular survey managed to get the right questions together to actually get useful information. I have more than my share of doubts that they did.

You say "I suspect that Blu-ray's window of opportunity is between seven months and a year to grab wider market acceptance as the next generation high resolution format". What would you regard as an acceptable figure for "wider market acceptance"? Obviously you don't see trebling the numbers of non-PS3 players as a sufficient increase so what would you see as that, and why do you say within 7 to 12 months? What's so magic about that period in your mind?

My feeling is that regardless of where things are at in 12 months time, I don't think the public will welcome another competing format into the marketplace within 18 months of the end of the last format war. I don't see them as being willing to go through the same kind of problems and doubts as the last format war raised that soon after it ended and I suspect another format war that soon would really kill things off. I think BD is it for a 1920 x 1080 HD video format and any new format would have to offer better resolution than that, which would also require even higher definition displays than we now have. I don't see a push for a higher definition format within the next few years so I see BD as it for that period.

What I'd like to see is a much better survey counting current stand-alone players and PS3s separately, counting how many current PS3s are being used for watching BD movies, and gathering similar data on intentions for the next 12 months so that what we have is not info about players which raises questions because of the PS3 and whether it should be regarded as a player or not, but which actually gives us a figure for how many people are buying BD movies because they won't be doing that if they're not playing them. That figure is much more important than the data this survey provides, since it leaves us still wondering what the actual uptake for BD video actually is.



David Aiken

This post is made possible by the generous support of people like you and our sponsors:

VH Audio

---

[ Top of Page ] [ Contact Us ] [ Support/Wish List ] [ Copyright © 2024, Audio Asylum, all rights reserved ]

---

[ General ] [ Speakers ] [ Tubes ] [ Vinyl ] [ Digital ] [ Hi-Rez ] [ Video Asylum ] [ Cables ] [ Tweaks/DIY ] [ Music ] [ Films ]

---