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In Reply to: RE: I don't know if I trust that poll… posted by David Aiken on May 20, 2008 at 05:14:05
I tend to think that the poll is a fairly good cross section even if the size of the group polled is a little smaller than I'd like to see.
>>> 'You say "I suspect that Blu-ray's window of opportunity is between seven months and a year to grab wider market acceptance as the next generation high resolution format". What would you regard as an acceptable figure for "wider market acceptance"? Obviously you don't see trebling the numbers of non-PS3 players as a sufficient increase so what would you see as that, and why do you say within 7 to 12 months? What's so magic about that period in your mind?' <<<
My speculation about the 7 to 12 month window has to do with holiday expectations and the economy now that we're down to one format. Please excuse the political analogy, but it's sort of like the expectations for Obama against McCain after Hillary has been knocked out of the running; it's all on his shoulders to prove himself just like it's on Blu-ray to prove itself after winning the format war.
The economy is a factor that all electronics manufacturers have to take into account without benefit of predictable outcome since DVDs and related HT products are a luxury and among the first items that suffer during economically stressed times. I suspect that sales figures in November and December will either convince the industry that inroads are being made for mass market acceptance or that high resolution format sales have peaked in this shaky economy.
Pricing becomes an even more crucial factor if trying to market a new and "better" technology since up-converting standard DVD players are fairly recent addition to the mix for average consumers. Up-converting players can be purchased for a LOT less than any Blu-ray player and can extend the enjoyment of acquired DVD collections making higher resolution formats seem a frivolous expense in hard times. Watch the holiday season very closely for indications.
The bottom line: With the pricing of both Blu-ray media and players so much higher than standard DVDs the incentive to transition may not exist beyond niche markets.
AuPh
Follow Ups:
I can appreciate the holiday season factor. As for the economy, it may simply prevent things from taking off or alternatively simply delay uptake until there's a bit of a recovery.
I think there's a danger in being too US-centric here. I'm in Australia and the economy is not quite as rough as that in the US at the moment. BD take-up here during the format war stage was better than in the US relative to HD-DVD because the HD-DVD people didn't release anything here until 2 months after BD released their first players and discs, so they were the latecomers. They kept a low profile and HD-DVD player prices remained high with the cheapest player usually staying around $100 Australian less than the PS3 and the other players priced similarly to some of the BD stand-alone players. HD-DVD probably lost the war here they day they decided not to release their wares within a month or two of the US release and to let BD get in first because that seemed to set the standard for the rest of their decisions in this market: stupid. There's also Japan and Europe. The US is a big market but a bit less than half the world market if I remember from the last lot of figures I saw so a slow take-up or even a bit of a stall there probably won't be critical if things elsewhere in the world proceed more favourably.
In the end it will catch on or it won't. SACD didn't catch on but discs are still being released so not catching on may not kill the format and we could be left with a niche market as you suggest, but then good quality audio and video have always been niche markets. The majority of the population are happy with less than that. The high end continues to survive in both fields and that's an indication that there is a reasonable sized market there.
I wouldn't be getting overly negative yet, and I do think that there is some scope for cautious optimism if you look at things from a world perspective rather than simply the local US perspective.
David Aiken
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