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format wars: I predict

64.12.116.195
Posted on August 21, 2007 at 06:40:30
DavidLD
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 Whoever can bring the price of a decent player in at under $100, and which format decides to sell disks at under $20 street price for recently available movies will uptimately win the battle regardless of which format might be technically superior.

But so long as players remain at $300 or more and a typical movie costs $25 or $30 on the street neither format will win, and indeed both formats will remain esoteric items mostly owned by a limited number of videophiles.

Any wider adoption awaits lower prices. The basic problem is that for most consumers a $25 player and a 480p disk offers a quality viewing experience, and the rest of it is too expensive and just a marginal gain. Consumers might eventually shift in significant numbers for something incrementally better, but not at today's prices.

 

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That's fine, the early adopters can pay that premium price., posted on August 21, 2007 at 08:28:57
oscar
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 The upsampling DVD and the HD formats may not look that different to J6P with the 25" screen. It might not make sense for them to spend $300/box or $25 per disc on the HD formats. But the heavy spenders for 40"+ 1080p displays are far more likely to spend that kind of money for HD hardware/software. But the HD content creators need to make it worth my while by delivering tbe best possible PQ and AQ that the HD formats can deliver. I won't spend premium money (particularly the doubledip variety) on releases which are little better than their DVD counterparts.

I'm also loath to spend money on more than one (1) HD source player, though Paramount's decision makes it more likely I'll eventually wind up doing this. It also makes it more likely the high end source player manufacturers will continue to sit out the HD format wars.

 

same for every new format, posted on August 21, 2007 at 10:49:31
Jazz Inmate
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 We go through this discussion every time a new technology reaches the market with competing formats.

There is nothing specific to Blu-ray or HD DVD that is innately more expensive than DVD and nothing about either format that makes it more expensive than the other in the long run. It's as Oscar said: early adopters pay a premium. Prices have come down really fast.
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"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)

 

It's the war I despise., posted on August 21, 2007 at 12:32:41
grantv
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 If there were only one I probably would have bought in quick. I paid $950 for my first DVD player; couldn't really care less if it's $100 or $500 if the format is worth it. The format war however irritates me to no end. And I'm personally not enough of a videophile to care that much.... Not enough to have the format made obsolete and be stuck with a player and some discs....

 

Premium product, premium margins, posted on August 21, 2007 at 15:18:38
4season
 Sales of standard DVDs are down, and most items are heavily discounted. So premium-priced Blu-Ray and HD DVD movies are potentially a really attractive market for the movie studios! It's like Apple computers which account for what 10% of the total computer marketplace? Less? But what a choice slice of the pie it is, with margins that the Dells of the computing world can only dream of.

 

RE: It's the war I despise., posted on August 21, 2007 at 16:06:30
Jazz Inmate
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 Whatever you do, don't start watching HD video content. I thought I wouldn't care much about standard vs high-def, but once you get a taste of 720P or 1080i broadcasts, let alone 1080p Blu-ray, you can't go back.
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"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)

 

Maybe...., posted on August 21, 2007 at 16:12:12
grantv
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 My bro-in-law has a hi-def set with hi-def broadcasting. The picture quality is definately clearer than my X1 PJ. When I go home though it doesn't bother me a bit. I'm more of a sound guy. Yes, if I had it in my home I'd never send it back.
Hmm, new PJ, new player, better service and rewire.... Semi tempting, but nah, think maybe I'll update my stereo some more. :)

 

I predict TOshibas latest price drops will win the format war. HD will come out on top, posted on August 21, 2007 at 21:22:47
Duilawyer
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Posts: 29475
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 And yes, I have a Blu Ray player that goes back Saturday. Tired of it freezing up,not recognizing discs\zones. Its buggy, period. 301

 

RE: same for every new format, posted on August 21, 2007 at 21:45:11
Bubba


 
Well, it is new technology. Blue lasers cost more than red ones. The discs are higher density and presumably there's a learning curve to producing them reliably. There's a heck of a lot more figgerin' required to turn H264 into a picture than there was with MPEG2, so the player needs to be smarter.

It isn't really expensive now. Remember laserdiscs? After being on the market for over 15 years, the players still cost around $500, and discs were over $30.

DVD has accustomed us to dirt cheap players and media. You can buy a functional player for about the same price as a new release movie. I don't think that can be said for any other format, ever, except possibly for kazoos and sheet music.

 

I think Blu-ray is super cheap, posted on August 21, 2007 at 21:58:41
Jazz Inmate
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Posts: 63589
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 I spent $19.99 on even the cheap DVDs when I adopted. And $24.99 on SACDs.

Blu-ray is a steal.
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"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)

 

Junior doesn't want a Toshiba lemon under the Xmas tree...junior wants a PS3 nt, posted on August 21, 2007 at 22:00:33
Jazz Inmate
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-------------

"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)

 

Perhaps, but Jr's parents don't want a game console in their living room (nt), posted on August 22, 2007 at 04:51:05
Jack G
Audiophile

Posts: 9741
Joined: September 24, 1999
 .

 

obviously the better argument! The idea that the game console will determine, posted on August 22, 2007 at 06:28:07
Duilawyer
Audiophile

Posts: 29475
Joined: November 5, 2001
 which format wins is nonsense. JSP does not want a spork. He wants, if anything, a DVD player that will sit where his current one does.

 

I'm Hooked And Jealous! :), posted on August 22, 2007 at 06:35:12
Robertc88


 
A friend of mine purchased a PS3 about 1 month ago taking advantage of the reduced price. I have been enjoying watching some of the Blu Ray titles he has rented. I don't have an upconvert SD DVD player so the picture quality is far and away better than what I am use to. I brought a few SD DVDs to his house for comparison purposes for the same title. We watched those through component at 480p and no contest!

And if you are a sound guy, that much more enjoyment we are lead to believe if you have the appropriate gear to take advantage of the enchanced sound. I haven't experiences that yet but cannot wait to down the road.

It will not be much longer before I take the plunge. Netflix renters will have to deal with another person for these BDs! :)

 

The Games Don't Need To Be The Priority, posted on August 22, 2007 at 07:14:36
Robertc88


 
What player for BD is currently selling bang for buck at a better price? My priority for the PS3 is going to be for BD. Games, SACD, online, etc. will be secondary. I'm sure there are at least some folks that are doing the same. Then again, perhaps some parents will enjoy BD and the kids can play their games!

Yes, one can go with HD DVD but the lowering of the cost doesn't mean that format necessarily is going to win a war. It may entice some buyers but there are no guarantees!

 

Sorry To Hear That About The 301, posted on August 22, 2007 at 07:34:41
Robertc88


 
Obviously the darn thing needs to work! :)

Still leaning towards the PS3 for BD. It appears that Target allows 90 day return policy. Like I said, it has got to work and you bet I'll put it through its paces. The player has a good track record and I know something can happen after 90 days but that is really the best one can do since other B&M stores usually offer 30 day return.

Lowering of prices doesn't guarantee a winner for a format war. It may enhance some sales but other than that...

 

True, but..., posted on August 22, 2007 at 07:40:15
Jack G
Audiophile

Posts: 9741
Joined: September 24, 1999
 The PS3 is big and ugly(IMO), and requires alot of airflow-more than the standalones. It also doesn't have an IR remote. The Sony 300 goes for $500, the new Samsung 1200 goes for $500, Panny's new model (same as old with updated FW) goes for $600. Samsung is coming out with 2 more models in another month or so. Sony will have a new standalone in a few months. There are lots of options out there, even for BD.
That said, there is a good chance that Mom and Dad will get an HD DVD player instead. Besides being cheaper, alot will have to do with preference of movies. The two formats tend to appeal to different target audiences. Also, right *now* there are more titles available on HD DVD than on BD, though that can change down the road.
Lots of goodies coming out down the road. :-)
Jack

 

I almost bought a PS3 with no intentional of playing games...., posted on August 22, 2007 at 07:43:08
oscar
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Posts: 19522
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Joined: October 25, 2000
 simply because it was the cheapest Blu-ray player available.

 

the Blu Ray works most of the time., posted on August 22, 2007 at 07:44:09
Duilawyer
Audiophile

Posts: 29475
Joined: November 5, 2001
 But there was the 4" wide water strip running down the left side of the screen. Unplugging it for 10 minutes a few times fixed that. Then it thought "The Blue Planet" from Nextflix were Region 2 discs, and said it would not play them. Then the next day it did. VERY LONG annoying wait to start up.

 

Kids Will Be Hounding Parents, posted on August 22, 2007 at 08:22:18
Robertc88


 
For the Xbox or PS3 IMHO. :)

No doubt though that if prices of HD DVD players come down, it could influence some buyers on the fence between the two formats. Sitting on the sidelines though wouldn't be a bad place to be.

As I stated in an earlier thread, prices wars only confuse consumers even more when there is a format battle. It guarantees nothing.

 

RE: Kids Will Be Hounding Parents, posted on August 22, 2007 at 08:50:47
Jack G
Audiophile

Posts: 9741
Joined: September 24, 1999
 Then let them take their game console into their room and hook it up to their SDTV.
Why on Earth would price wars confuse anybody? Now I'm confused.
Jack

 

It's a media center (photos, music) more than a game console NT, posted on August 22, 2007 at 09:59:28
Jazz Inmate
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Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
Joined: April 5, 2000
-------------

"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)

 

They probably want a media center that can support photos and music, as well as HD movies, posted on August 22, 2007 at 10:00:29
Jazz Inmate
Audiophile

Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
Joined: April 5, 2000
 That's what the PS3 is.
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"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)

 

What will entice the masses ..., posted on August 22, 2007 at 10:48:11
Quadzilla
Audiophile

Posts: 4163
Location: Southwestern Ontario
Joined: July 31, 2003
 ... is the availability of rental movies, and it doesn't look like either one is setting that world on fire. VHS won out over Beta largely because of tape rentals, even though Beta was technically better. Having said that, DVD-Video is all the masses will need for a very long time.



Prehistoric 4-Channel Lizard

 

And don't look now, but Sony is adding a dual HDTV receiver to the PS3, posted on August 22, 2007 at 13:12:14
Jazz Inmate
Audiophile

Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
Joined: April 5, 2000
 Sony Computer Entertainment has announced PlayTV, a device that, when coupled with a PS3, turns the machine into a full digital video recorder (DVR). The device, which currently doesn't have a price or release date, will feature two high definition TV tuners that will allow users to record and/or watch two separate HD video streams on their PS3s.

The add-on will of course make use of the PSP connectivity by allowing users to record HD or SD shows on their PS3s, and then watch them on their PSPs. And because PlayTV is part of the PlayStation 3 family, it will be fully upgradeable with new features through PlayStation Network.
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"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)

 

RE: Kids Will Be Hounding Parents-for a Wii and an iPhone ;-), posted on August 22, 2007 at 13:13:22
4season
 Would you give kids a $500-600 game console that takes $60 games? Gosh.

 

Wrong age group-still aimed at kids (nt), posted on August 22, 2007 at 13:21:04
Jack G
Audiophile

Posts: 9741
Joined: September 24, 1999
 .

 

Looks like Sony is planning on HD downloads, posted on August 22, 2007 at 13:26:21
Jack G
Audiophile

Posts: 9741
Joined: September 24, 1999
 Ethernet port, lots of memory, DVR.
Just what the world needs, a MORE expensive game console.
Jack

 

What price drops?, posted on August 22, 2007 at 13:29:56
David Aiken
Audiophile

Posts: 5858
Location: Brisbane
Joined: September 25, 1999
 Here in Australia the cheapest Toshiba I've heard of, the HD-E1, retails for $899 Aus and the top of the range, the HD-EX1, for $1599 Aus according to the latest issue of one of our magazines. I can't confirm the prices because I've yet to see one in a shop. As a comparison, the cheapest PS3 here goes for just under $1000 Aus, the Sony BDP-S300 for $1099 Aus when it's released here next month, and the LG BH100 dual format player for $1599 Aus.

Toshiba/HD-DVD launched in Australia 2 months AFTER BD, and around 6 months after it launched in the US. BD launched very quickly after the US launch. HD DVD players aren't markedly cheaper than a lot of BD players here.

Toshiba/HD DVD may be trying to look after the US but they don't seem to give a damn about the market elsewhere. I've yet to see a HD-DVD player in a shop, I've seen discs in only one location. I've seen BD players in a number of shops and discs in a number as well.

I don't know what's happening in markets other than the US and Australia but the same thing isn't happening in both of those markets and I suspect that's probably the case elsewhere. Toshiba/HD-DVD doesn't seem to care about markets outside the US from what I see here and that simple fact may bring them down. The US is a huge single market but the market elsewhere is probably larger overall and they need to start considering other places as well if they really want to come out on top.

Quite frankly, the BD side of things seem to want to capture the market here and Toshiba and the HD-DVD crew appear to really not care about us all that much. We simply don't seem to rate to them when you look at the incredibly late release dates and the fact that their players basically cost the same as BD players here with Toshiba's cheapest HD-DVD player being less than $100 Aus (=$80 US) less than the PS3.


David Aiken

 

you already can download HD content...Sony is planning on a media center, posted on August 22, 2007 at 13:42:29
Jazz Inmate
Audiophile

Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
Joined: April 5, 2000
 No matter how many times you call it a game console, the PS3 is a media center. That includes HD movies and television, photos, music and, yes, games.

Again, the thing has 4 USB ports, bluetooth technology and a huge hard drive.
-------------

"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)

 

not really NT, posted on August 22, 2007 at 13:43:47
Jazz Inmate
Audiophile

Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
Joined: April 5, 2000
-------------

"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)

 

"PlayTV will be available in UK, France, Italy, Germany and Spain early in 2008, with other PAL territories to, posted on August 22, 2007 at 14:03:30
Jack G
Audiophile

Posts: 9741
Joined: September 24, 1999
 no mention of the US in the article.

>>>No matter how many times you call it a game console, the PS3 is a media center<<<
Its still a game console, no matter what you call it. That's why its a Play Station. Its not a media center that can also do games and movies, its first and formost a game console that may have secondary uses. Thats why only 40% of its owners even know its lso a BD player (see my post down the page).
Jack

 

RE: They probably want a media center that can support photos and music, as well as HD movies, posted on August 22, 2007 at 18:31:00
GoingCoastal
Audiophile

Posts: 19
Joined: May 31, 2007
 "They probably want a media center that can support photos and music, as well as HD movies..."

They probably already have a USB cord for their digital camera or the pix burned on to a dvd. Most likely they own a cd player already too. And you expect them to shell out an extra $250+ to replace what they can already do?

As for the kids wanting a game console under the tree, going by present sales that would be a Wii not a PS3.

 

$349 for the A20. nt, posted on August 22, 2007 at 18:31:50
Duilawyer
Audiophile

Posts: 29475
Joined: November 5, 2001
 .

 

There's all sorts of rumors flying around the price of HD DVD players will be under $200 by Xmas., posted on August 22, 2007 at 18:41:49
oscar
Audiophile

Posts: 19522
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Joined: October 25, 2000
 And Blu-Ray might drop to under $300. We shall see.

Even with $200/$300 players, the mass market might balk at $30 movies.

 

Hmmmmm…, posted on August 23, 2007 at 00:39:34
David Aiken
Audiophile

Posts: 5858
Location: Brisbane
Joined: September 25, 1999
 1: There's no A20 available in Australia. As far as I know it has never been released here.

2: We have 3 models available from Toshiba. They are the HE-E1 which is $899 Aus (=$728 US), the HP-E10 which is $1099 Aus (=$890 US), and the HE-XE1 which is $1599 Aus (=$1295 US). Those conversions are based on an exchange rate where the Australian dollar = $0.81 US which is roughly what the Australian dollar is worth today. If the Australian dollar goes back up against the US dollar, Toshiba's prices aren't going to come down and the comparison gets even worse.

3: Note that the cheapest Toshiba player in Australia is over twice the price of the A20 in the US.

I doubt we'll see anything significantly cheaper from Toshiba here anytime soon. Oscar's talking rumours of players for US $200 by Christmas. There's probably no hope of Toshiba having a player available in Australia for the equivalent of $600 US by Christmas.

I have to repeat: what price drops? They certainly don't exist where I live and, as I said, there's only around $80 US difference between the cheapest HD-DVD player (the E1) and the cheapest Blu-ray player (the PS3) available here in Australia. HD-DVD is a rip-off here when you compare the prices above to the prices you're quoting.


David Aiken

 

RE: What price drops?, posted on August 23, 2007 at 05:09:05
Jack G
Audiophile

Posts: 9741
Joined: September 24, 1999
 The A2 can be found for $250 or less if one looks. They will get cheaper too. The third generation players (3 models) will all be less than $500 list. The Chinese made Venturer line should be coming out in Q4, listing for (hopefully) less than $200.

>>>Toshiba/HD DVD may be trying to look after the US but they don't seem to give a damn about the market elsewhere. I've yet to see a HD-DVD player in a shop, I've seen discs in only one location. I've seen BD players in a number of shops and discs in a number as well.<<<

There's a reason for that-here's a rough breakdown of the HDTV market:
US: 60%
Japan: 20%
Europe: 10%
Other: 10%

Australia has about 250,000 HDTVs. To put that in perspective, Florida- America's wang, has more HDTVs.
Enjoy,
Jack

 

My, aren't you fickle, posted on August 23, 2007 at 05:15:37
Jack G
Audiophile

Posts: 9741
Joined: September 24, 1999
 Didn't you just recently sell off your HD DVD player because of the silly Blockbuster announcement? Going to buy a new one now?
Jack

 

I'd Say The PS3 Is Grand Larceny Versus Other Current BD Players, posted on August 23, 2007 at 05:55:24
Robertc88


 
I think lots of folks realize this and plucked down the bucks versus the other players available. And I still believe many bought it with BD playback as the main reason! They can utilize other features as icing on the cake.

Why buy the others at their current price when the PS3 is capable of much more more than other BD players.

 

Yeah, too many people overreacting to format war news., posted on August 23, 2007 at 06:18:21
oscar
Audiophile

Posts: 19522
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Joined: October 25, 2000
 If you bought a player, live with it and enjoy the software you probably bought to go with it. Who knows, that player might outlive the format(s) it supports, but at least you'll have had years of enjoyment.

 

"Even with $200/$300 players, the mass market might balk at $30 movies." - Not if they're like this:, posted on August 23, 2007 at 07:48:30
Audiophilander
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Posts: 30200
Location: Fort Worth (D/FW Metroplex)
Joined: March 31, 2000

;0)

 

RE: "Even with $200/$300 players, the mass market might balk at $30 movies." - Not if they're like this:, posted on August 23, 2007 at 09:16:48
oscar
Audiophile

Posts: 19522
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Joined: October 25, 2000



That has to be a mistake (or a carrying case is worth an extra $60.00 ??). At that price, even I might succumb to Pre-ordering.

 

PS is a slot loader, which I'm not a big fan of., posted on August 23, 2007 at 10:40:20
oscar
Audiophile

Posts: 19522
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Joined: October 25, 2000
 That curved surface also keeps me from putting the disc case directly on top of the player.

I've had a BB salesman tell me Sony doesn't really want you playing tooo many Blu-ray discs because it was designed more for game playback than "routine movie watching" (implying long term reliability issues perhaps?). Of course, they wanted to sell you more expensive standalone players.

 

Wrong again, posted on August 23, 2007 at 13:20:54
David Aiken
Audiophile

Posts: 5858
Location: Brisbane
Joined: September 25, 1999
 The A2 can't be found here either. See my response to Duilawyer for details of the models that can be found.

The figures on the breakdown of the HDTV market don't surprise me, but 40% of the market is outside the US and that's a proportion that can't be ignored with impunity. In addition, that proportion will be rising over time and the US proportion falling, simply due to the respective populations of the US and the rest of the world.

Blu-ray released first in Australia, has players which while still more expensive than HD-DVD players are not significantly more expensive, has more movies released here, andd movie prices seem to be slightly cheaper here as well, possibly because of discounting and sales numbers. None of those factors help HD-DVD here. Repeat that too often in the rest of the world and you bomb in 40% of the world market. If BD does as well in the rest of that 40% as they seem to be doing here, and they continue to do as well in the US as they have been doing, BD will get an overwhelming advantage in player and disc sales.

Not good marketing strategy to rely so heavily on the US in my view.


David Aiken

 

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