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RE: No offense, but $40,000,000 isn't a big box-office opening for a summer release.

Posted by Analog Scott (A) on June 26, 2008 at 19:45:49

In Reply to: No offense, but $40,000,000 isn't a big box-office opening for a summer release. posted by Audiophilander on June 25, 2008 at 22:25:50:

>> The movie probably cost at least $120,000,000 to make and advertise (that's a fairly conservative estimate), and even taking into account world-wide ticket potential, until it hits the streets as a DVD rental Get Smart will be lucky to make it's money back.>>


It doesn't work that way. There is a pretty reliable formula for predicting gross revenues based on the opening weekend and viewers' ratings. This movie did half it's prodction cost on the first weekend. Generally speaking if a movie does 20% of it's production cost on opening weekend it will break even. Get Smart will definitely be a profitable movie and will have a sequel next year. Mark my words. I worked on a commercial for this movie and I can tell you the makers were just hoping they would do as well as The Love Guru.


>> In fairness to the film, the fact that it opened at a bad time may have been unavoidable, but Pixar's WALL-E is likely to roll over anything up against it the next week or so.>>


I'm sure it will but that will not prevent Get Smart from following the very predictable pathology of typical box office performance. By the end of next weekend it should be at around 65-70 million domestic box office. If so it is well on it's way to substantial profits.


>> If the competition wasn't as heavy this coming weekend, who knows, Get Smart might have recovered some momentum with word of mouth interest as you've suggested. But the clock is running and theater owners want full capacity for screens, especially during summer blockbuster season. WALL-E is already getting great early reviews and the hot new action flick Wanted is getting high marks as well. I guess we'll have to wait and see what the weekend brings.>>

I am sure Wall-e will do great box office. In this day of multiplexes it does not prevent last week's winner from continuing to do well. Mark my word, 65-70 million domestic gross by end of weekend 2.



>> The rule of thumb for audience impact is around 50% for 2nd weekend box-office (not bad for a $100,000,000 opening weekend, but terrible prospects for a $38,700,000 opening); if a movie breaks a lot bigger than 50% it may have legs, much less than 50% and it's hasta la vista, baby.>>

You know my prediction. Lets' sit back and see where the chips fall.


>> My prediction (and it's no foregone conclusion, by any means): If this coming weekend's numbers for Get Smart aren't a lot better than 50% of the initial weekend's gross you'll be 'spying' it at the dollar houses by the second or third weekend in July, ...and Max can't afford to miss it by this much. ;O)>>

The bottom line is the bottom line. I'll make another prediction, 140 million domestic gross. 90 million world wide and the expected take from DVD and cable from a movie that does total BO of a quarter billion. This would put Get Smart about 120 to 140 million into profit. Maybe more.

>> I want to reiterate, I'm not criticizing the film nor making a judgment call in respect to the acting, script or concept, it's just an objective take on the narrow window films have to find an audience in the summer marketplace.>>

I get what you are saying.

>> However, that said, if I were allowed one general observation about films with origins LIKE Get Smart (modern comedy films derived from vintage comedy television series), the track record hasn't been great.>>

Generally I am against the whole idea. Unfortunately many lesser such productions have actually done very well. Scooby Doo and The Flintstones come to mind.

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