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In Reply to: RE: If Blu-Ray maintains 2:1 (or greater) software sales advantage through the holidays. posted by oscar on August 13, 2007 at 18:01:20
Not sure what players are coming out for BD that can compete price wise with the Toshs for the holidays. If the latter sell well be it the newer or older models, the software ratio will obviously change.
I do expect some will get the PS3 as a holiday present but that will probably be more for the video gamers than HD watchers so little if any increase for BD software sales from that.
This format war will not be resolved for the holidays IMHO.
Yet...Blu-Ray still maintains a software sales advantage. If Sony needs to drop the price on their players, I expect they will to keep the disparity low enough to keep folks investing in Blu-Ray over HD DVD because of the advantages in studio (software) support.
HD DVD only advantage is hardware pricing; everything else is against them, including public perception. I don't see how HD DVD can "win" against Blu-Ray; if anything, all they can accomplish is dragging down Blu-ray with them when HD VOD and/or next generation video format shows up.
BD maintains the software sales advantage strictly because of the PS3. That is their *only* advantage. Sony is also hemorrhaging money because they are subsidizing it. That's a short term gain only, since the masses won't buy a game console to watch movies. Even BDA insiders have admitted that they need to sell alot more stand alone players if they wish to "win" (as you put it).
Since sales of discs has totaled about 3.7M discs combined, 2.2M for BD, and 1.5M for HD DVD (inception to the end of July), I seriously doubt that anyone in the business seriously thinks the "war" is over.
With a difference of only 700,000 discs between the two formats, selling more HD DVD players can make a substantial difference. Whether or not it will, remains to be seen. This is where price will come into play.
It will be an interesting Q4.
enjoy,
Jack
Xbox!
We're riding the discounted PS/3 wave right now, but what if Sony really does return to $600 pricing once the 60 gigabyte consoles are gone?
Meanwhile, Microsoft cut prices on Xbox360 and the HD DVD accessory, and most importantly, Halo 3 is due soon, and in the past, Halo has been one of *the* most eagerly-anticipated games around.
I wonder how many folks bought this that own the XBOX 360.
I really do think there are a higher percentage of folks who bought the PS3 that utilize BD playback than folks/survey/bean counters think IMHO. It will be my main reason to buy one. The games and CD/SACD playback will be secondary as well as any internet access.
I seriously doubt Sony will let the PS3 prices rise again. If anything, they'll lower it for the Holiday season, perhaps in response to XBox360 price drops. Same with their blu-ray standalone players.
Let's put it this way: If only a small percentage of Halo 3 buyers also buy the add-on Xbox360 HD DVD drive or pick up an HD DVD movie for their existing drive, that would still be a big deal: Figure that Home Media Research says that combined, HD DVD and Blu-Ray movies sold 2.4M for the first six months of 2007. Well, the last installment of Halo sold 2.4M in it's first 24 HOURS, and 5 million in it's first month. And Microsoft just made that HD DVD drive a whole lot more tempting what with free movies and a price drop. What happens if even 2% of those buyers get an HD DVD movie while they're at the store ;-)
.
Their Blu-Ray player comes out later, but exactly when, no one is saying yet.
- http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/hd-dvd/onkyo-readies-their-first-hd-dvd-player-for-a-fall-release-287973.php (Open in New Window)
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