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In Reply to: RE: DVD sales shrunk in 2008 for the first year since the format's launch posted by Jazz Inmate on April 14, 2008 at 09:23:35
Four years is a long ways away. I wouldn't be at all surprised if both are gone by then. :)
I'd also think DVD sales are shrinking due to the fact that people have their base set of DVD's that they enjoy most, thus sales are just tapering off. For me, this is exactly what happened with both CD's and DVD's. I barely buy either nowadays as my base set of likeable discs is in my room.
In the late 80s-early 90s, people were leaving the record stores with armloads of classical CDs. Once they had the standard repetoire in hand, sales plummetted. Same thing with movies - everyone has a few dozen "must own" movies - movies that they want to watch over and over throughout the years, be they classics like "Casablanca" or childhood favorites. Now that they have them, sales of DVDs are dropping. It's only going to get worse, although at least studios have the advantage over music CDs of being able to re-release the same titles in special editions with "extra features" to encourage fans to buy them again.
There are still only a handful of Bluray titles I would want to own at DVD prices, let alone $29-$35 a disc. I am not willing to pay full price for any Bluray disc. The few I own were either free or on sale for at least $10 off. I would bite on a couple dozen currently available titles at $14.99 though.
> > Four years is a long ways away. < <
Not really. DVD is a mature technology, BD is a new technology. Four years is a relatively fast time to catch up. I think it took about the same timeframe for CD to supplant LP.
> > I wouldn't be at all surprised if both are gone by then. :) < <
I suppose you could be right, but I don't see what there is to smile about if that's the case. Streaming/downloadable video is worse than DVD quality. Who wants to watch that on their brand new HDTV or listen to compressed audio on their nice HT systems?
> > I'd also think DVD sales are shrinking due to the fact that people have their base set of DVD's that they enjoy most, thus sales are just tapering off. For me, this is exactly what happened with both CD's and DVD's. I barely buy either nowadays as my base set of likeable discs is in my room. < <
Of course. That's what happens when mature formats pass their peak. Studios have been successful in offsetting this by "remastering" and repackaging their biggest sellers every couple of years. But with high def here now, few will want to upgrade their DVD to another DVD. That's where Blu-ray comes in. It has legs and the quality is fantastic.
-------------Call it, friendo.
Streaming/downloadable video is worse than DVD quality. Who wants to watch that on their brand new HDTV or listen to compressed audio on their nice HT systems?
#1 - You can download torrents that are BD quality already, and as more and more people get into HD that number is only going to skyrocket.
#2 - Considering that many people are using crappy speakers with their giant HDTV's, compression in audio doesn't matter to a large number of people I'd say, and a good number of people probably don't know if they're getting the best in PQ, either :-D
Blu-ray ultimately, I think, is doomed by the downloading market...as the hard-drive based distribution idea gets more and more popular, optical discs like BD are going to be in trouble.
How quickly can you download 30-50G HD movies ?
And I suspect with HDMI 1.3 compliant receivers and source players, even J6P with crappy speakers will notice the benefits of uncompressed/lossless audio.
With Apple TV, I get the impression that the biggest limiting factor isn't the pipe, but Apple's servers. I have had HD movies require anywhere from 2-7 hours to download, while SD generally takes about an hour. Either way, you can begin watching after 2% has downloaded, but I prefer to wait in order to ensure 100% glitch free viewing.
These aren't 30-50 gigabyte downloads because they're compressed and lack additional languages, features, etc. Quality-wise, they're not as good as the best B-Ds, but they're competitive with middle-of-the-pack ones, of which there are plenty.
> > Four years is a long ways away. < <
Not really. DVD is a mature technology, BD is a new technology. Four years is a relatively fast time to catch up. I think it took about the same timeframe for CD to supplant LP.
---I feel that as time and technology progress formats may have a shorter life span. Who knows what may happen in four years (new formats?) was my meaning in other words. A more 3 dimensional presentation? Maybe a stretch, but who knows.
> > I wouldn't be at all surprised if both are gone by then. :) < <
I suppose you could be right, but I don't see what there is to smile about if that's the case. Streaming/downloadable video is worse than DVD quality. Who wants to watch that on their brand new HDTV or listen to compressed audio on their nice HT systems?
---The smile goes back to my first reply; that a better technology will arise, not that we'll be using something worse.
> > I'd also think DVD sales are shrinking due to the fact that people have their base set of DVD's that they enjoy most, thus sales are just tapering off. For me, this is exactly what happened with both CD's and DVD's. I barely buy either nowadays as my base set of likeable discs is in my room. < <
Of course. That's what happens when mature formats pass their peak. Studios have been successful in offsetting this by "remastering" and repackaging their biggest sellers every couple of years. But with high def here now, few will want to upgrade their DVD to another DVD. That's where Blu-ray comes in. It has legs and the quality is fantastic.
---I personally have never bought into a "new release" DVD. I think many people (such as myself) tire of this, new formats included. I'm sure the quality of BD is fantastic, and perhaps it will stick around. But even as a semi-fanatic I can't be bothered. If my old X1 PJ bulb dies I'll definately buy an HD PJ in its place. Will I buy a blue-ray player at the same time, hm, maybe. But only if Blockbuster rents them in equal volumes (and similar rental pricing) and the selling prices are basically equal to DVD at the time. I put very little hours on my PJ though, so it could be a few years still. Now I'm going to smile again. :)
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