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$30.00 HD movies are going to slow down adoption....

And only early adoptera are routinely buying HD movies at this time.

HD DVD only has a slight edge hardware-pricewise but I expect that to change when/(if?) economies of scale start to kick in for Blu-Ray; I'm sure Wal-Mart is scouting (and getting quotes) for "cheap" Blu-Ray players as well as HD HD DVD players. Also, most of the major studios support Blu-Ray with Sony, Disney, and Fox supporting Blu-Ray exclusively. Universal is the only major studio which is HD-DVD exclusive. If Universal goes "format-neutral", HD-DVD will be dead within a couple of years.

I'm support both formats because I got a combo player. But I'm rooting for Blu-ray to win because of it's superior storage capacity and video/audio bitrate/bandwidth advantages. Maybe not noticeable on 40" or smaller screens but I've seen low bitrate VC1 motion artifacts on a 126" screen I didn't particularly care for. You are also more likely to be able to fit in lossless audio tracks (uncompressed PCM, TrueHD, and DTS HD MA) with Blu-ray discs.

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