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In Reply to: DRM isn't that big an issue for me but it is for the major studios. posted by oscar on June 13, 2007 at 11:18:40:
I think that it's one of those "if ya snooze you lose" scenarios and the Studios are well aware of it having been caught napping before. The support for one format over the other is soft for a good reason, and that reason is the unpredictability of consumer acceptance.
Consumer acceptance, as I see it, is based on a variety of factors:
1) Price point for hardware & software
2) Backwards compatibility with existing SD format software
3) Picture quality on the current display device the consumer owns
4) Availability of highly desired films to showcase that quality
Even though Blu-ray seems to have the upper hand with the majority of studios, the aggressive lowering of prices for HD-DVD hardware and availability of popular titles will probably impact public acceptance since the two formats are virtually indistinguishable quality-wise based on recent comparisons. Studios are beginning to opt for releasing key titles in both formats knowing that consumers will sit on the fence if forced to forgo purchasing a favorite movie because it was released on the 'wrong' format. So, with dual inventories and similar picture quality it will become more of an issue of pricing than availability in the near future.
As an aside, even though technical geeks would like consumers to believe that disc space is an important consideration, what really matters is perceived picture quality in A/B comparisons, and since picture quality is roughly equivalent the greater space on Blu-ray may not matter one iota in the scheme of things. Unfortunately, even with the added disc space the facts don't appear to favor SONY because, 1) so far the two formats are virtually indistinguishable when playing movies, 2) Blu-ray discs, which require the Durabis coating (see below), are more difficult to produce in quantity and therefore more expensive, and 3) SONY's Blu-ray machines are far more expensive than their HD-DVD counterparts.
Finally, the region coding issue which favors Studios is only seen as an undesired obstacle to savvy consumers. Most consumers aren't especially concerned with the piracy issues because they only buy high quality legitimate releases anyway. If anything, consumers probably see the robust copy protections and region coding as just another means to tack higher costs onto the product while restricting viewer's options.
>>> "I'm just not convinced of HD-DVDs long-term longevity. Who is more likely to "Cry Uncle" first: the Blu-ray exclusive studios: Sony, Fox, and Disney; or Universal (HD-DVD exclusive) ? Or none of the above, in which case the retailers are doomed to support HD dual inventories." <<<
Good points, but the bottom line is that this isn't going to be a matter of which format cries "UNCLE" first, it's going to be decided by the "Dutch Uncle" represented by Studios and the spending habits of the Studios favorite nephews and nieces, ...the CONSUMER! For awhile the dual inventory issue will probably remain unresolved, but eventually lower prices and/or reasonably priced dual format players will make this a non-issue as well for retailers with limited shelf space.
Next-up, I predict thin-line cases for Blu-ray & HD-DVD discs. :o)
Cheers,
AuPh
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Follow Ups
- What's more of an issue for the major studios is market share. - Audiophilander 13:39:36 06/14/07 (0)
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