No. Charles Hansen predicted dire consequences for Blu-ray. Time will prove him right

165.21.155.89

Posted by Ray98@Walmart on February 19, 2008 at 04:44:03

In Reply to: it's officially over posted by Joe Murphy Jr on February 19, 2008 at 00:13:27:

Charles Hansen of Ayre has always been spot on predicting market trends. Heâ€™s a damn good engineer too. Thatâ€™s why I have always trusted his predictions.

Here's what will happen:

"...If it were up to Sony and Panasonic (and Ole Lund Christensen???), we would have a new format every 3 years so that they could keep people on an endless upgrade cycle and keep selling new hardware..."

Thatâ€™s right, in 2010, we will have a new Pure-ray disc(amazing new lasers that ultilize all the seven colours of the rainbow) or Plural-ray disc (implying combination of myriad different coloured lasers) ! The format developers for this single-coloured laser Blu-ray format ain't going to recoup their money spent on R&D. As to which name would be used on the next new generation discs, the horizon is still very cloudy inside my crystal ball, so while waiting for the cocaine induced purple haze to clear, let's examine his other predictions first.

"...But the software industry (movie studios) are raking in money hand over fist with standard DVDs. There are 60,000,000 stand alone DVD players in the US alone. The biggest growth market for DVD is yet to come in developing countries (China, India, et cetera). These markets don't give a fig about high definition video...."

He's highly, definitely right. All the DVD marketing & film company guys I spoke to in those 2 countries universally claim that the reasons why DVD got off its butt in their markets is due to pirated DVDs that brought the prices down, so that even the shirtless, poor Chinese and Indian farmers can afford to buy the discs. Blu-ray disc code is unbreakable, so these poor Chinese or Indian farmers ainâ€™t never gonna get their hands on High Definition video. DVD is more than good enough for these peasants.

"...How long do you think it will be before there are even 10,000 Blu-Ray players at $4,000 a pop? Two years? Three years? How much money can a movie studio make selling Blu-Ray discs to 10,000 potential customers?..."

So what he underestimated Blu-ray potential sales a little bit? Sales figures are for sissies like Dewy. Film companies like Paramount and (to a lesser known fact) Warner, actually are making money, not by selling Blu-ray discs or HD-DVD discs, but by getting under-the-table money (in the millions) from Toshiba and Sony respectively. (why else did you think Warner defected to Blu-ray and defecated on HD-DVD???) So when that money ran out, the high moral Warner Brothers will go back into HD-DVDs.

And Hansen may yet be proven right again for his next statement.

"...The reality is that there won't be strong market penetration in the US for *any* new format until the price drops below $200 for a player. (That's exactly what happened for DVD.) But that would erase the entire reason for even making Blu-Ray players. Once the players become a commodity, the Japanese cannot compete against the Chinese. Then they'll try and sell you Purple-Ray..."

Yes. It's going to be called Purple-Ray! You heard it here first.

"...Blu-Ray ain't gonna fly for consumer electronics. Computers, yes. There the demand for a removeable recording format that can store 50 GB is huge. It's just not practical to back up a 100 GB hard drive onto DVDs..."

No wonder Sony cap the HDD on their PS3 at 80GB only. They must have hired Hansen as their consultant! Heâ€™s got a first hand look at the impending disaster waiting to happen.

Look out for the worldâ€™s first Purple-ray disc player from Ayre. Hurray! Itâ€™ll be the first time heâ€™s well ahead of other manufacturers. Racerguy and I will be the first in line to buy one.

Blu-ray Cheerleaders smoking crack cocaine (Open in New Window)

This post is made possible by the generous support of people like you and our sponsors:

Follow Ups Full Thread

Topic - it's officially over - Joe Murphy Jr 00:13:27 02/19/08 (37)

Quick, somebody put a mirror under Cackle's nose ... - Quadzilla 11:12:11 02/19/08 (7)

My hi-def player still plays better than your SAC pom pom Blu ray fan boys!!! - Cackle 17:12:44 02/19/08 (6)

Stop it. I am drowning in my ocean of tears. nt - Quadzilla 17:26:33 02/19/08 (5)

You dare to mock the KOOKL??? - SF tech 19:31:00 02/19/08 (4)

RE: You dare to mock the KOOKL??? - Quadzilla 05:26:25 02/20/08 (3)

Re : " Who is LOLing now ? ". Me . SACD is still dead , and DSD is not in the specs for Blu-ray . LOL ( nt ) - ZS KEKL 17:47:19 02/21/08 (2)

By the way, what format are you backing now? - Quadzilla 19:45:16 02/21/08 (0)

I guess you have to take your little "victories" where you can. - Quadzilla 19:40:08 02/21/08 (0)

No. Charles Hansen predicted dire consequences for Blu-ray. Time will prove him right - Ray98@Walmart 04:44:03 02/19/08 (5)

Unfortunately - unclestu52 11:33:59 02/20/08 (0)

Rarely have I read such a confused, misinformed rant NT - Jazz Inmate 12:04:55 02/19/08 (3)

he tends to know his shit, but he is way off on this - Joe Murphy Jr 21:22:09 02/19/08 (2)

I respect Hansen, but I doubt his views are being fairly expressed in the post NT - Jazz Inmate 10:42:04 02/20/08 (0)

Charles Hansen make good products, and he will sooner or later - Ole Lund Christensen 07:23:30 02/20/08 (0)

feel a bit sorry for those here who went the other route. Hopefully, the Sony supporters won't rub lt in - jaiva 02:02:28 02/19/08 (21)

Nice sentiment, but it's already happening - TK421 12:54:11 02/19/08 (17)

To be fair, the HD DVD camp deserves it - Jazz Inmate 14:08:50 02/19/08 (15)

(nt) - Jack G 15:06:14 02/19/08 (14)

If you have something to say, say it NT - Jazz Inmate 15:17:27 02/19/08 (13)

Just saving the post so it can't be deleted - Jack G 15:19:58 02/19/08 (12)

then save this one as well - Joe Murphy Jr 22:28:01 02/19/08 (1)

I support that, Microsoft was convicted for crime in Europe - Ole Lund Christensen 04:24:21 02/20/08 (0)

the funny part his, he REALLY does not see the irony in his - Duilawyer 17:16:20 02/19/08 (4)

That's what's so sad. (nt) - Jack G 10:11:55 02/20/08 (3)

To the victor belongs the spoils - Jazz Inmate 11:11:56 02/20/08 (2)

Uh huh - Jack G 11:25:01 02/20/08 (1)

Essentially, you're saying the HD DVD adopters outsmarted themselves - Jazz Inmate 13:37:18 02/20/08 (0)

you OWN Jizz Inmate. nt - Duilawyer 17:15:02 02/19/08 (3)

If he did, I'd have adopted HD DVD nt - Jazz Inmate 17:24:50 02/19/08 (2)

getting the last word does not mean you won... nt - Duilawyer 17:26:25 02/19/08 (1)

and agreeing doesn't mean you're right (nt) - Joe Murphy Jr 22:29:43 02/19/08 (0)

And I would want to delete it because __??? - Jazz Inmate 15:30:00 02/19/08 (0)

Ya noticed huh? (nt) - Jack G 13:32:28 02/19/08 (0)

I went "the other route." - jsm 12:14:15 02/19/08 (2)

Lots Of Folks Jumped On Tosh $99 Player at Walmart - Robertc88 05:49:17 02/20/08 (0)

nice post - Joe Murphy Jr 22:48:38 02/19/08 (0)

Here is the link to the official Toshiba statement - Ole Lund Christensen 01:58:17 02/19/08 (0)

Follow Ups

No. Charles Hansen predicted dire consequences for Blu-ray. Time will prove him right - Ray98@Walmart 04:44:03 02/19/08 (5)

Unfortunately - unclestu52 11:33:59 02/20/08 (0)

Rarely have I read such a confused, misinformed rant NT - Jazz Inmate 12:04:55 02/19/08 (3)

he tends to know his shit, but he is way off on this - Joe Murphy Jr 21:22:09 02/19/08 (2)

I respect Hansen, but I doubt his views are being fairly expressed in the post NT - Jazz Inmate 10:42:04 02/20/08 (0)

Charles Hansen make good products, and he will sooner or later - Ole Lund Christensen 07:23:30 02/20/08 (0)

No. Charles Hansen predicted dire consequences for Blu-ray. Time will prove him right

165.21.155.89

Post a Message!