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In Reply to: I don't know if I trust that poll… posted by David Aiken on May 20, 2008 at 05:14:05:
I tend to think that the poll is a fairly good cross section even if the size of the group polled is a little smaller than I'd like to see.
>>> 'You say "I suspect that Blu-ray's window of opportunity is between seven months and a year to grab wider market acceptance as the next generation high resolution format". What would you regard as an acceptable figure for "wider market acceptance"? Obviously you don't see trebling the numbers of non-PS3 players as a sufficient increase so what would you see as that, and why do you say within 7 to 12 months? What's so magic about that period in your mind?' <<<
My speculation about the 7 to 12 month window has to do with holiday expectations and the economy now that we're down to one format. Please excuse the political analogy, but it's sort of like the expectations for Obama against McCain after Hillary has been knocked out of the running; it's all on his shoulders to prove himself just like it's on Blu-ray to prove itself after winning the format war.
The economy is a factor that all electronics manufacturers have to take into account without benefit of predictable outcome since DVDs and related HT products are a luxury and among the first items that suffer during economically stressed times. I suspect that sales figures in November and December will either convince the industry that inroads are being made for mass market acceptance or that high resolution format sales have peaked in this shaky economy.
Pricing becomes an even more crucial factor if trying to market a new and "better" technology since up-converting standard DVD players are fairly recent addition to the mix for average consumers. Up-converting players can be purchased for a LOT less than any Blu-ray player and can extend the enjoyment of acquired DVD collections making higher resolution formats seem a frivolous expense in hard times. Watch the holiday season very closely for indications.
The bottom line: With the pricing of both Blu-ray media and players so much higher than standard DVDs the incentive to transition may not exist beyond niche markets.
AuPh
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Follow Ups
- Great response and interesting analysis of the data. - Audiophilander 01:25:52 05/21/08 (1)
- RE: Great response and interesting analysis of the data. - David Aiken 16:01:14 05/21/08 (0)
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