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Not so good news for Blu-ray according to recent poll.

70.243.202.76
Posted on May 20, 2008 at 02:25:05
Audiophilander
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Posts: 30200
Location: Fort Worth (D/FW Metroplex)
Joined: March 31, 2000
 That caption header alone should have Jazz Inmate dusting off his pompoms! ;O)

Seriously, this is an issue worth discussing and analyzing even though it's doubtful that high tech savvy consumers, as many of us are, can have much impact on the final outcome. This post isn't intended to disparage Blu-ray format advocates (well, I'm teasing JI, but he deserves it), but rather get some feedback on a topic of interest to us all and opinions about the poll linked below.

As I've said many times before, I don't really have a dog in this hunt (even though Old Red which I originally picked up and still occasionally feed no longer has anything to chase), and FTR, I have Blu-ray and HD-DVD (and the Oppo DV-983H on order, just in case standard DVD continues to rule the roost! -grin).

I don't know how many folks here are early adopters, but after being singed a few times over the years I have a simple rule: if my interest is tweaked by a new video technology I usually climb on board a format by around the third generation, after a few of the more critical bugs are worked out of the players and media.

Having read the linked article polling Blu-ray's market impact I have to concur, somewhat begrudgingly, with the assessments and add, that as long as the price of the players and media remain so much higher than standard DVD (especially inexpensive upscaling players), Blu-ray will probably remain a niche product with little hope of wide acceptance in the foreseeable future.

I suspect that Blu-ray's window of opportunity is between seven months and a year to grab wider market acceptance as the next generation high resolution format (my opinion); the holidays will be crucial.

That doesn't necessarily mean that Blu-ray's backers would pull the plug at that point (especially after such a long war of attrition and coming out on top), but if the format settles into something comparable to the LD (laserdisc) niche status, which is where it seems headed at the moment, we'll probably never see the kind of lower prices on media required to make it competitive.

Worst case scenario: If it reaches a point where only the most popular titles are released day and date of standard DVD releases Blu-ray will lose even more ground. It also means that many sought after back-catalog titles may never see the light of day outside of standard DVD release or, if they do, they'll only appear as expensive imports.

Best case: the economy gets a little better, the Blu-ray prices get more competitive and folks feel a little less antsy about spending those big bucks on home entertainment.

Food for thought.

Cheers,
AuPh

 

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    ...
Odd..., posted on May 20, 2008 at 04:55:57
Jack G
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 That 4% said they own a BD player, but 5% said they own a PS3. I guess there still some people that don't know the PS3 is a BD player?
Prices are going to stay high for a while. As I posted a while back, they aren't expected to put out a sub-$200 player until the end of 2009. This slow economy can't possibly be helping mass adoption either.
Time will tell how this plays out.
Jack

 

I don't know if I trust that poll…, posted on May 20, 2008 at 05:14:05
David Aiken
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 Quote 1: "Harris Interactive surveyed 2,529 U.S. adults from April 7 through 15, and found that only four percent actually own a Blu-ray player."

Quote 2: "Five percent of those asked currently own the PlayStation 3."

Hmmmm. Only 4% of the 2,529 people polled own a BD player yet 5% of the same 2529 own a PS3 which is a BD player. They could at least have been honest and said 9% of the people polled own a player capable of playing BD discs but that 55% of the players were PS3's and that not all of those PS3s were used for playing BD movies. Even better, they could actually have asked how many of those PS3's were actually being used for playing BD movies.

That's the first problem.

Second problem. They say "Only nine percent of those asked plan to buy a Blu-ray player within the next year." Well, for a start they don't say how many people were planning to buy a PS3 since they didn't class it as a BD player in the first round of figures. That would probably increase player numbers considerably more. Then, if only 4% of people currently own BD players—ignoring the PS3—another 9% buying players in the next year slightly more than trebles that 4% and, even including all PS3s in the current figure, a 9% BD player uptake in the next 12 months doubles the numbers and those numbers would have to go higher than that when new PS3's are taken into account, unless of course they're playing unfair with the numbers and including PS3s in the 9% when they didn't include them in the 4% figure for players in the first set of numbers.

Not good number crunching there.

BD has been around for nearly 2 years now and for the first 20 odd months of that period there was a format war going on which certainly scared some people away. For those that didn't stay away, numbers were split between BD and HD DVD. An uptake of 9% of people buying BD players—excluding the PS3—in the next year, a doubling of uptake over the first 2 years, does represent an exponential growth rate and that's not too bad, especially if PS3 numbers are also swelling the figures. Put that 4% of BD players, 5% of PS3s, and another 9% uptake of BD players together and you've got an 18% total after 3 years, say 20% or more if you add PS3s over the next year in as well. That's better than a fifth of the population which isn't too bad a bit over 1 year after the format war ended. I'd actually be inclined to view those figures with some optimism.

Of course the big question mark in my analysis is how many of the 5% with PS3s are watching BD movies on them and it looks like they didn't ask that question. Given that fact and the way they reported the numbers they did get, I have to wonder whether the people who designed that particular survey managed to get the right questions together to actually get useful information. I have more than my share of doubts that they did.

You say "I suspect that Blu-ray's window of opportunity is between seven months and a year to grab wider market acceptance as the next generation high resolution format". What would you regard as an acceptable figure for "wider market acceptance"? Obviously you don't see trebling the numbers of non-PS3 players as a sufficient increase so what would you see as that, and why do you say within 7 to 12 months? What's so magic about that period in your mind?

My feeling is that regardless of where things are at in 12 months time, I don't think the public will welcome another competing format into the marketplace within 18 months of the end of the last format war. I don't see them as being willing to go through the same kind of problems and doubts as the last format war raised that soon after it ended and I suspect another format war that soon would really kill things off. I think BD is it for a 1920 x 1080 HD video format and any new format would have to offer better resolution than that, which would also require even higher definition displays than we now have. I don't see a push for a higher definition format within the next few years so I see BD as it for that period.

What I'd like to see is a much better survey counting current stand-alone players and PS3s separately, counting how many current PS3s are being used for watching BD movies, and gathering similar data on intentions for the next 12 months so that what we have is not info about players which raises questions because of the PS3 and whether it should be regarded as a player or not, but which actually gives us a figure for how many people are buying BD movies because they won't be doing that if they're not playing them. That figure is much more important than the data this survey provides, since it leaves us still wondering what the actual uptake for BD video actually is.



David Aiken

 

???, posted on May 20, 2008 at 05:49:33
Jack G
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 >>>Quote 1: "Harris Interactive surveyed 2,529 U.S. adults from April 7 through 15, and found that only four percent actually own a Blu-ray player."

Quote 2: "Five percent of those asked currently own the PlayStation 3."<<<
Its been known for quite a while, that not all PS3 owners know it is a BD player. In fact, about a year or so ago, less than 1/2 of the owners knew it was a BD player. This has been discussed here previously. It is possible, though somewhat odd, that there are still some that don't know its a BD player.

>>>They could at least have been honest and said 9% of the people polled own a player capable of playing BD discs but that 55% of the players were PS3's and that not all of those PS3s were used for playing BD movies.<<<
Why do you assume that the total number of players is PS3 owners + BD player owners? Since when do stand alone players make up 45% of all BD players? That's news to me.

Jack

 

Or maybe not odd., posted on May 20, 2008 at 06:38:04
grantv
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 IF I was a gamer and did have a PS3, it would not be in my main room, but probably in our sunroom or the second TV room downstairs. I would think there are lots of people like me who would have a PS3 for their kids, and not hooked up to their main rig (and thus are not concerned with the blue ray ability of the player).

 

Are you serious?, posted on May 20, 2008 at 10:14:42
Jazz Inmate
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Posts: 63589
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 >> Seriously, this is an issue worth discussing and analyzing <<

Maybe, but not by you. You have proven that you can't discuss or analyze these issues rationally.

>> As I've said many times before, I don't really have a dog in this hunt <<

But you lied. You adopted HD DVD for specious reasons, refused to listen to logic and were hugely insulting to those like me who called you on your hypocrisy and questioned your false statements.

>> I have a simple rule: if my interest is tweaked by a new video technology I usually climb on board a format by around the third generation, after a few of the more critical bugs are worked out of the players and media. <<

And yet you bought the first HD DVD player on the market. So much for your simple rule.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

The poll is trustworthy, posted on May 20, 2008 at 10:18:05
racerguy
 Your opinion is based on an article that does a poor job of interpreting it.

I read the methodology and results document on the pollster's website. It was good work - methodology is sound, results are solid, conclusions are in line with the data.

 

David's right. The numbers don't add up, posted on May 20, 2008 at 10:29:11
Jazz Inmate
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Posts: 63589
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 >> Its been known for quite a while, that not all PS3 owners know it is a BD player. In fact, about a year or so ago, less than 1/2 of the owners knew it was a BD player. <<

Yeah, I wouldn't trust that poll too much either. Regardless, the number discrepancy that David picked up on shows it wasn't those participating in the poll, but the pollsters themselves who were confused and were reporting the results inaccurately.

>> This has been discussed here previously. It is possible, though somewhat odd, that there are still some that don't know its a BD player. <<

It's possible that some folks conducting the poll didn't know, and therefore didn't know how to tally the answers or ask the questions correctly. The results, if not the entire poll, are flawed.

>> Why do you assume that the total number of players is PS3 owners + BD player owners? Since when do stand alone players make up 45% of all BD players? That's news to me. <<

It shouldn't be up for debate what the results of the poll were. The fact that the pollsters couldn't deliver straightforward results indicates there is a problem.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

Here is one irrelevant finding, posted on May 20, 2008 at 10:35:50
Jazz Inmate
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 >> U.S. adults are more likely to purchase a Sony PlayStation 3 that plays Blu-ray discs and has Internet access for $399 (11%) or an original Blu-ray disc player without connectivity for the same price (10%) versus a new Blu-ray disc player with Internet for $500-$650 (4%) <<

Of course consumers will go for the cheaper technology. You need a poll to tell you that?

The problem is that the poll doesn't take into account cheaper blu-ray players on the market and in the pipeline, such as the $299 Magnavox sold at Wallmart. Even if you buy into the results, you have to acknowledge they're out of date.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

But all PS3 games are on blu-ray and all have the blu-ray logo NT, posted on May 20, 2008 at 10:36:41
Jazz Inmate
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Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
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-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

Which wouldn't change the fact that in my case it would still not be used for movies. NT, posted on May 20, 2008 at 10:45:50
grantv
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Lots of words, saying nothing, posted on May 20, 2008 at 10:54:36
Jack G
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 >>>Yeah, I wouldn't trust that poll too much either.<<<
Big surprise. You don't trust anything that doesn't rave about BD.

>>>Regardless, the number discrepancy that David picked up on shows it wasn't those participating in the poll, but the pollsters themselves who were confused and were reporting the results inaccurately.<<<
I disagree. Unless you can prove otherwise, the pollsters are reporting what they are told, so if there is a problem, the people being polled are the ones in error.

>>>The results, if not the entire poll, are flawed.<<<
I'm sure you think so, but you haven't shown their methodology is flawed.

>>>It shouldn't be up for debate what the results of the poll were.<<<
Correct. Do you have sales figures showing that standalones are 45% of all BD players, including the PS3? Does anyone? Show me and I'll believe it. Otherwise, David is way off base.

>>>The fact that the pollsters couldn't deliver straightforward results indicates there is a problem.<<<
we are getting this second hand-an article about a poll. It sounds like you have issues with the article more than the actual poll.

Jack

 

RE: Lots of words, saying nothing, posted on May 20, 2008 at 11:01:51
Jazz Inmate
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Location: Bay Area, California
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 >> I'm sure you think so, but you haven't shown their methodology is flawed. <<

Well, they asked their "what would you buy" questions without factoring in the $299 BD player, so the results are already out of date and don't reflect current market conditions. Sure seems like a flaw to me.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

This Format Will Fail Soon, posted on May 20, 2008 at 11:11:18
Robertc88


 
Why? Cause I don't feel it will so there is the kiss of death! :)

Like to see what the situation is when the price of BD players drops as well as the software.

 

DVD was very expensive too, initially, posted on May 20, 2008 at 11:23:15
Jazz Inmate
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 It took a good 10 years for DVD to become entrenched. It's only logical to think BD would take that long.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

It's Apple's fault!, posted on May 20, 2008 at 11:48:54
4season
 Apple TV works really well as an entertainment hub, and most of the time, if I have a choice between going out and renting or purchasing physical media or renting it from Apple, I will do the later. This is generally true of high definition movies as well, and in fact, Apple seems to offer high def movies not yet available in Blu-Ray.

Other factors adversely affecting my Blu-Ray purchasing:

It's summer! Who wants to sit indoors and watch TV?

Not too many must-have movies have been issued since last holiday season, either. Yes, there's the Criterion Collection B-Ds, but those won't arrive until October.

Too many other things vying for my disposable income: New iPhone should be announced in June at WWDC, there's Photokina in Sept (along with the promise of a new Leica DSLR) and meanwhile PC notebook prices have fallen to amazing new lows--under $330. Also wondering if I should buy a Sigma DP-1 pocket camera, Wadia's new iPod dock, a Nuforce Icon USB amp for the iMac sound system, etc.

 

I think there's a pretty big difference though., posted on May 20, 2008 at 12:31:35
grantv
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 VHS to DVD was a gigantic step forward in audio and video quality. I bought in early because of this (first player was ~$900). IMO DVD to BD is not all that substantial in comparison.
-VHS: Tapes were poor audio and visual quality. Tapes wore out after repeated playings, and were fairly large/clumsy.
-DVD: Good audio and video. Discs do not wear out. Nice and compact.
-BD: Better audio and video depends on what type of display one has. IME the difference is mostly noticeable on a higher end display, and mostly so only on larger units. It's not as substantial an improvement to my eyes, not compared to VHS/DVD.
Add to that VHS players were around for many years before people had to start replacing it with DVD's. Basically a generation. My parents bought our first family VHS player in the 1980's, maybe even late 70's. ~20 years later DVD's, OK. Now BD comes in only 10 years later. Many people have just bought into DVD in the last couple years. I've a hard time seeing it being a big success. We'll see.

 

Granted, but few DVD players had VHS capability. All Blu-ray players have DVD capability, posted on May 20, 2008 at 12:44:23
Jazz Inmate
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 The industry could phase out DVD players and sell only Blu-ray players, after a couple years. At that point, studios could stop releasing DVDs.

The point is, you can upgrade, sell your old player and still have full access to your DVD collection, with upscaling.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

Just give it time, Blu-ray is THE 1080p optical media for the foreseable future., posted on May 20, 2008 at 12:51:58
oscar
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 And there won't be anything better for quite some time.

The movie studios will want Blu-ray to succeed: how else can they re-sell old movies when the DVD market is already saturated with "old movie" releases ?

When there is a hope for a Blu-ray release with better PQ/SQ than it's DVD counterpart, I won't waste money on the DVD.

So the possibility exists Blu-ray will remain a niche format like SACD. I'll enjoy the ride while I can; it's not there is a "better" format out on the horizon anytime soon.

 

RE: Not so good news for Blu-ray according to recent poll., posted on May 20, 2008 at 13:04:23
AbeCollins
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Contributor
  Since: February 2, 2002
 "I don't know how many folks here are early adopters, but after being singed a few times over the years I have a simple rule: if my interest is tweaked by a new video technology I usually climb on board a format by around the third generation, after a few of the more critical bugs are worked out of the players and media."

Ah, and that's the beauty of Sony's Playstation 3 Blu-ray strategy. I didn't take a chance on buying an early "Blu-ray player". I bought an awesome game console that also happens to play Blu-ray discs.

You know what? Sony got it right. I bought a few games and play them but curiosity got the best of me so I now own 19 Blu-ray disc titles and growing.

Hmm, funny how that works. I wonder how many others are like me. Sony ain't dumb.

 

But will the masses want it?, posted on May 20, 2008 at 13:54:51
Jack G
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 >>>The movie studios will want Blu-ray to succeed: how else can they re-sell old movies when the DVD market is already saturated with "old movie" releases ?<<<
Yes, but as you are well aware, most catalog titles don't sell that well on BD, hence the studios are focusing on new releases. Don't expect to replace a sizable and varied DVD library with BD.
jack

 

Blue-ray recorder?, posted on May 20, 2008 at 14:19:15
grantv
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 I currently use a DVD recorder, there are Blue-ray units that record?

 

It's coming. Blu-ray writable media is already available for compatible drives/PCs, posted on May 20, 2008 at 14:28:47
Jazz Inmate
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 There's no way to use DVD for HD recording.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

I'll take what I can get. How else would I handle it ?, posted on May 20, 2008 at 17:03:36
oscar
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 the downside of investing in a big screen is the urge to feed it the best source material.

 

RE: Lots of words, saying nothing, posted on May 20, 2008 at 17:31:53
David Aiken
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 "I disagree. Unless you can prove otherwise, the pollsters are reporting what they are told, so if there is a problem, the people being polled are the ones in error."

I have no doubt the pollsters are reporting what they are told, but what they are told is in response to a standard set of questions that everyone who was polled was asked. If there's a problem, it isn't because the people who were polled didn't answer the questions properly, it's because someone who designed the questionnaire didn't come up with a good set of questions.

If you do a poll and the results aren't clear, then the problem usually lies with the poll and the questions asked. You should be designing the questions in such a way that the responses leave no doubt as to what the data means.



David Aiken

 

Is it?, posted on May 20, 2008 at 17:41:53
David Aiken
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 I just read the methodology and results too. Take a look at the first question which was "Which of the following devices do you own?" Respondents can tick more than one item in their response and 2 of the items listed are "Sony Playstation 3" and "A Blu-ray disc player". Note that the BD player item did not include the words "other than the PS3".

I don't think it's necessarily clear from the data table that PS3 owners without a separate stand-alone BD player didn't indicate "yes" to both items. There may well be overlap between the PS3 owners and the BD player owners.

Having said that, the data and report on the Harris Interactive site are a hell of a lot better and clearer than the report that AuPh provided the link to.



David Aiken

 

On the other hand…, posted on May 20, 2008 at 17:46:08
David Aiken
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 I own a PS3, no games, and 37 BD movies. I can see more movies lining up on the shelf, but not any games.




David Aiken

 

Jazz, I would LOVE to see the studios try that., posted on May 20, 2008 at 18:52:04
JMCIII
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 It would kill physical video media competely. Consumers (and I don't just mean folks like us) HATE, and I do mean hate, being told what they HAVE to buy. Price is one of the big reasons the music industry is running in quicksand right about now. You'd hope the video world would have been paying attention, but by the look of thing no, they are simply repeating history instead of learning from it.

Until the manufactuers and studios get the price of players AND media down to DVD levels Blu-Ray will continue to be stillborn in the minds and wallets of the average consumer. Want to see proof? Go to your local Walmart and see, A. how many payers are even on display (much less how expensive they are), and B. the cost of the movies in comparison to regular DVD. And yes, I know some less expensive players are to be released this summer, but they are still 3 to 4 time the price of a decent upsampling DVD player, plus they is no guarantee that they will even work properly with out constant firmware upgrades since there is STILL (after how many years???) NO SET STANDARD for Blue Disc. It's too bad too, but time will tell.


John Crossett

___

It sounds like English, but I can't understand a word you're saying.

 

It's fairly clear that the author of the survey didn't understand the issues or market forces NT, posted on May 20, 2008 at 21:29:38
Jazz Inmate
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-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

I wish they did that with SACD, but the labels didn't have their ducks in a row, posted on May 20, 2008 at 21:31:31
Jazz Inmate
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 Maybe the studios are damned if they do and damned if they don't. I certainly will be upset to see inferior downloadable technology become the industry standard for video, like it did for audio.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

Of course it is, posted on May 20, 2008 at 22:22:15
racerguy
 Your statements are ridiculous. The poll specifically included the PS3 in the hi-rez category ("Few report owning Blu-ray disc players (4%), Sony PlayStation 3 (5%), HD DVD players (6%) and the HD-DVD drive for the Xbox 360 (1% have external drive while 9% have an Xbox 360").

The poll even asked respondents if they planned to buy a "Sony PlayStation 3 which plays Blu-ray discs and Internet connectivity..." for crying out loud!

The PS3 can indeed play Blu-ray movies (and despite your assertion, that fact was clearly reflected in the poll questions), but its primary purpose is as a gaming console, and that is its primary target market. That's how most people think of it. When I think of a "Blu-ray disc player," I think of something like the Sony BDP-S300, which is targeted specifically at the Blu-ray video market. That's how most people think of it.

The PS3 deserves its own category, just like the other gaming consoles, which the poll properly reflected.

If the poll did not allow respondents to select more than one category of devices owned, your position would hold water, but that is not the case. You may not like the results, but you have yet to mount any sort of cogent argument against them.

 

RE: Not so good news for Blu-ray according to recent poll., posted on May 21, 2008 at 00:14:14
usafwso
 I had a Sony BD player. It conked out and returned it. Will not touch another Sony branded product - EVER! That said, will gladly wait for the truly high end BD players to start appearing in the market. That said, I shall wait until more interesting film titles start to appear on BD. Mainstream Hollywood blockbusters for the most part do not appeal to my viewing habits. I would GLADLY fork over pretty much whatever the true market cost of both hardware and software, but only when the films I want to see appear on BD.

 

RE: Of course it is, posted on May 21, 2008 at 00:50:42
David Aiken
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Joined: September 25, 1999
 Yes, the poll did ask if people were planning to buy a "Sony PlayStation 3 which plays Blu-ray discs and Internet connectivity..." but that wasn't asked in question 1 and question 1 did not specifically state that the BD player asked about was not to include PS3's. People answer questions in order based on the information in the question being asked and in previous questions. In Question 1 it is not clear that the BD player category excludes the PS3. They're asking about a lot of technology and people are as likely to answer based on what a product does as what it is, so a person with a PS3 and no other BD player may respond yes to both questions.

Obviously you've never done research which required the development of a questionnaire and the analysis of responses. I have, only once for a research project associated with a post graduate qualification, and believe me it's not easy to get a questionnaire right. You learn very quickly that if it's possible to misinterpret a question or make a mistake about exactly what is meant, some people will do exactly that. Questionnaire design is a lot harder than you think. These people were asking questions about a number of technologies including BD. It wasn't specifically a BD survey and that probably makes it easier for some ambiguity to creep into the questions.

I actually want to see BD be successful since I bought a PS3 as a BD player a couple of months ago and I'm prepared to live with that decision. My concern here is that I don't think the questionnaire was unambiguous in Question 1 and that makes me wonder about whether the figure for the total number of people polled with a device that plays BD discs is the sum of the number saying they had a PS3 and the number saying they had a BD player or whether there is some overlap in those 2 groups with some PS3s being counted twice and the actual number of people with players actually being lower than it looks. Given that I own a BD player I should be happy to add the 2 stated results together to get the highest possible number and not question them as I am doing. When I question the figures, I'm asking whether they actually put the total numbers for people with BD capable machines too high so don't say to me "You may not like the results". I'm actually suggesting that the numbers are less favourable for BD than the survey is suggesting and, as I said, I would like to see it succeed so it would actually be in my interests to shut up and not question the results in the way I'm questioning them if I wanted to take a really pro BD stance and ignore facts.




David Aiken

 

I knew you'd have to come out and do a few cheers for us., posted on May 21, 2008 at 00:54:12
Audiophilander
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Posts: 30200
Location: Fort Worth (D/FW Metroplex)
Joined: March 31, 2000
 >>> "Maybe, but not by you. You have proven that you can't discuss or analyze these issues rationally." <<<

I see that you've added whining to your routine, but so far I haven't seen anything more spectacular than a few back-flips.

>>> "But you lied. You adopted HD DVD for specious reasons, refused to listen to logic and were hugely insulting to those like me who called you on your hypocrisy and questioned your false statements." <<<

We aren't discussing HD-DVD here, but just to keep the facts straight, you're dead wrong. The reasons aren't specious. Many folks in the industry STILL consider HD-DVD was the best shot at a next generation high resolution format for a variety of reasons, not the least of which being competitive pricing of players and media, and the fact that HD-DVD had fewer glitches and was more market ready when introduced.

I can prove this assertion, but that's not why I posted this link for discussion; this is about Blu-ray's future and I expect you to respect that rather than getting all whiny.

As for being insulting, that's a laugh. In Yiddish I believe it's also called chutzpah. You're the dude who acted like a giddy fan-boy creaming yourself over every biased Blu-ray assertion and quick to ridicule those of us who had any interest in HD-DVD. Don't try spinning that baloney here because it's easy to locate your silliness in the archives.

>>> "And yet you bought the first HD DVD player on the market. So much for your simple rule." <<<

Another weak and easily refutable piece of misinformation. I think you're getting rusty from your clownish behavior over on the Outside board, but we won't go there.

FTR, I bought my first HD-DVD Player less than a year ago, in August as I recall, and it most certainly wasn't the first player on the market.

Now that I've virtually tucked you in for the evening, rhetorically speaking, I'll see what some of the adult voices around here have to say.

Regards,
AuPh

 

Great response and interesting analysis of the data., posted on May 21, 2008 at 01:25:52
Audiophilander
Audiophile

Posts: 30200
Location: Fort Worth (D/FW Metroplex)
Joined: March 31, 2000
 I tend to think that the poll is a fairly good cross section even if the size of the group polled is a little smaller than I'd like to see.

>>> 'You say "I suspect that Blu-ray's window of opportunity is between seven months and a year to grab wider market acceptance as the next generation high resolution format". What would you regard as an acceptable figure for "wider market acceptance"? Obviously you don't see trebling the numbers of non-PS3 players as a sufficient increase so what would you see as that, and why do you say within 7 to 12 months? What's so magic about that period in your mind?' <<<

My speculation about the 7 to 12 month window has to do with holiday expectations and the economy now that we're down to one format. Please excuse the political analogy, but it's sort of like the expectations for Obama against McCain after Hillary has been knocked out of the running; it's all on his shoulders to prove himself just like it's on Blu-ray to prove itself after winning the format war.

The economy is a factor that all electronics manufacturers have to take into account without benefit of predictable outcome since DVDs and related HT products are a luxury and among the first items that suffer during economically stressed times. I suspect that sales figures in November and December will either convince the industry that inroads are being made for mass market acceptance or that high resolution format sales have peaked in this shaky economy.

Pricing becomes an even more crucial factor if trying to market a new and "better" technology since up-converting standard DVD players are fairly recent addition to the mix for average consumers. Up-converting players can be purchased for a LOT less than any Blu-ray player and can extend the enjoyment of acquired DVD collections making higher resolution formats seem a frivolous expense in hard times. Watch the holiday season very closely for indications.

The bottom line: With the pricing of both Blu-ray media and players so much higher than standard DVDs the incentive to transition may not exist beyond niche markets.

AuPh

 

but Jazz said the market would explode and prices would drop as soon as Toshiba dropped out, posted on May 21, 2008 at 02:55:24
jaiva
Audiophile

Posts: 17016
Joined: September 15, 2004
 JI was wrong?

I`m shocked

 

I understand that, posted on May 21, 2008 at 04:36:39
Jack G
Audiophile

Posts: 9741
Joined: September 24, 1999
 But I won't buy a bad movie just because it has a good picture.
Jack

 

I agree, posted on May 21, 2008 at 05:23:58
Jack G
Audiophile

Posts: 9741
Joined: September 24, 1999
 I don't think the studios are willing to slaughter their cash cow, DVD, right now. I certainly don't see the masses buying into BD until the prices are much cheaper. Unfortunately, sub-$200 players, the supposed magic price point, aren't expected to hit the market until the end of 2009, and who knows when the discs will be closer to DVD prices.
Jack

 

You are way off base, posted on May 21, 2008 at 07:51:55
racerguy
 >> People answer questions in order based on the information in the question being asked and in previous questions. In Question 1 it is not clear that the BD player category excludes the PS3. They're asking about a lot of technology and people are as likely to answer based on what a product does as what it is, so a person with a PS3 and no other BD player may respond yes to both questions.<<

All assumptions on your part, all completely unfounded.

This was an online survey, not a list read over the telephone.

>>Obviously you've never done research which required the development of a questionnaire and the analysis of responses. I have, only once for a research project associated with a post graduate qualification, <<

Obviously you don't know what you're talking about, because I've done this type of stuff more times than I can count. In fact I've done polls and surveys professionally, not just as a student exercise for a grade.

Harris has been in business since 1975, and has a stellar reputation. They know what they are doing. Forgive me for saying this, but you have zero credibility in this area. I'll take their conclusions about their poll over your assumptions about their poll, thank you very much.

>>I actually want to see BD be successful since I bought a PS3 as a BD player a couple of months ago<<

It's been pretty clear why you don't like the poll results, and I can understand that - you are financially and emotionally invested. However, due to your bias you are offering an argument based on assumptions that lack foundation. It should be obvious to anyone without a dog in this fight that the poll was well-done, and if you weren't letting your bias cloud your judgment your student experiences should allow you to see that both the methodology and results are sound.

 

RE: On the other hand…, posted on May 21, 2008 at 08:45:18
AbeCollins
Audiophile

Posts: 46469
Location: USA
Joined: June 22, 2001
Contributor
  Since: February 2, 2002
 The Sony PS3 is an excellent Blu-ray player and from what I've read one of the most advanced. There are stand alone Blu-ray players that still don't quite match up the PS3. I'm waiting... And when more mature stand alone players arrive on the scene, I'll buy one. My only complaint with my PS3 is that the fan is sometimes noisy.

 

I Don't Recall Early DVD Prices, posted on May 21, 2008 at 09:10:40
Robertc88


 
I didn't adapt for awhile, probably because of the price of the players and software though initially was probably why.

MSRP $39.99 though is ridiculous for a movie with no extras in some cases and not much better quality either.

 

If you inferred "right now" from my post, I apologize. I meant over time, posted on May 21, 2008 at 10:06:51
Jazz Inmate
Audiophile

Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
Joined: April 5, 2000
 Of course studios aren't going to stop releasing DVDs right now and of course CE manufacturers aren't going to all release blu-ray players and pull their DVD players off the shelves. But in the long run, they might. That's what happens when superior technologies replace inferior ones.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

nope, I said our best shot at having an optical format succeed was to choose the best format and support it NT, posted on May 21, 2008 at 10:35:44
Jazz Inmate
Audiophile

Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
Joined: April 5, 2000
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

pointing out your lies isn't cheering, posted on May 21, 2008 at 10:52:54
Jazz Inmate
Audiophile

Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
Joined: April 5, 2000
 >> We aren't discussing HD-DVD here, <<

I'm not discussing it. I'm just observing that your decisions and claims about these issues has been bass ackward and that you are still hanging on to some pathological wish for blu-ray to fail.

>> but just to keep the facts straight, you're dead wrong. The reasons aren't specious. Many folks in the industry STILL consider HD-DVD was the best shot at a next generation high resolution format for a variety of reasons, not the least of which being competitive pricing of players and media, and the fact that HD-DVD had fewer glitches and was more market ready when introduced. <<

You just said we're not discussing HD DVD and then you launch into this gushing endorsement of a dead format? Let it go, auph. It's done. Move on. Sell your doorstop and coasters and buy yourself a PS3.

>>As for being insulting, that's a laugh. In Yiddish I believe it's also called chutzpah. You're the dude who acted like a giddy fan-boy creaming yourself over every biased Blu-ray assertion and quick to ridicule those of us who had any interest in HD-DVD. Don't try spinning that baloney here because it's easy to locate your silliness in the archives. <<

You could not even deal with a simple post about Nielson ratings without making accusations like that above, peppered with childish "cheerleader" comments and other stupid insults only you could find funny. Sorry you were stupid enough to choose the losing format and sorry you were too hardheaded to understand what the numbers meant, both the specifications and the sales that clearly showed you picked the losing dog in the fight. If you're not prepared to admit you were wrong, you can't yet learn from your mistakes.

-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

RE: I Don't Recall Early DVD Prices, posted on May 21, 2008 at 10:56:35
Jazz Inmate
Audiophile

Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
Joined: April 5, 2000
 It does seem kind of ridiculous until you realize it costs more than that to fill up a tank of gas in an economy car, and costs more than that to go out for dinner and a movie for two. Even at these high prices, Blu-ray is still one of the best entertainment values around, and the fact is that most can be had for $20.

That's what I was paying for DVDs 10 years ago.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

I hate format wars I'm just glad it's over ..nt, posted on May 21, 2008 at 14:15:10
late
Audiophile

Posts: 84405
Joined: April 4, 2000
 .

 

RE: You are way off base, posted on May 21, 2008 at 15:45:45
David Aiken
Audiophile

Posts: 5858
Location: Brisbane
Joined: September 25, 1999
 "This was an online survey, not a list read over the telephone."

So, do you think everyone reads the survey document from start to finish first, then goes back to the beginning to start answering questions? Most read the first question, answer it, read the second, answer it, and go on from question to question that way. Pretty much the same as answering questions read over the phone.

"Obviously you don't know what you're talking about, because I've done this type of stuff more times than I can count. In fact I've done polls and surveys professionally, not just as a student exercise for a grade."

Did you simply administer the polls and surveys, or did you design the questionnaires. They're very different things. As for my study, it ended up being published in a professional peer-reviewed journal so it was of an acceptable quality to meet professional standards.


"Harris has been in business since 1975, and has a stellar reputation. They know what they are doing."

I'm in Australia so I don't know Harris, and I'm not questioning their reputation, but no-one consistently delivers work of exactly the same standard in everything they do. Some things are always better than others and that's true for the best of firms as for the worst. I'm saying the wording of one question may lead to some people to report ownership of the same device twice, overinflating the result and giving a better result for BD than may actually be the case for the survey sample. I also said that they asked about players and not about whether the respondents with PS3s used their PS3 to watch BD movies. Some gamers may not watch BD movies and simply counting PS3s may give an overinflated result when it comes to considering them as BD movie players.


"It's been pretty clear why you don't like the poll results, and I can understand that - you are financially and emotionally invested. However, due to your bias you are offering an argument based on assumptions that lack foundation."

If I'm so invested as to want to discredit the results for that reason, why am I doing so in a way that would reduce the number of machines being used as BD players by respondents and actually make the situation look worse for people like me who have financially invested in BD? If I didn't like the results and wanted to argue against them because of my investment, I'd be arguing that they under-reported rather than over-reported the number of BD players owned by respondents. Your argument here doesn't make sense.




David Aiken

 

RE: Great response and interesting analysis of the data., posted on May 21, 2008 at 16:01:14
David Aiken
Audiophile

Posts: 5858
Location: Brisbane
Joined: September 25, 1999
 I can appreciate the holiday season factor. As for the economy, it may simply prevent things from taking off or alternatively simply delay uptake until there's a bit of a recovery.

I think there's a danger in being too US-centric here. I'm in Australia and the economy is not quite as rough as that in the US at the moment. BD take-up here during the format war stage was better than in the US relative to HD-DVD because the HD-DVD people didn't release anything here until 2 months after BD released their first players and discs, so they were the latecomers. They kept a low profile and HD-DVD player prices remained high with the cheapest player usually staying around $100 Australian less than the PS3 and the other players priced similarly to some of the BD stand-alone players. HD-DVD probably lost the war here they day they decided not to release their wares within a month or two of the US release and to let BD get in first because that seemed to set the standard for the rest of their decisions in this market: stupid. There's also Japan and Europe. The US is a big market but a bit less than half the world market if I remember from the last lot of figures I saw so a slow take-up or even a bit of a stall there probably won't be critical if things elsewhere in the world proceed more favourably.

In the end it will catch on or it won't. SACD didn't catch on but discs are still being released so not catching on may not kill the format and we could be left with a niche market as you suggest, but then good quality audio and video have always been niche markets. The majority of the population are happy with less than that. The high end continues to survive in both fields and that's an indication that there is a reasonable sized market there.

I wouldn't be getting overly negative yet, and I do think that there is some scope for cautious optimism if you look at things from a world perspective rather than simply the local US perspective.



David Aiken

 

Of course it isn't; that's because I've been truthful and you haven't., posted on May 22, 2008 at 01:45:48
Audiophilander
Audiophile

Posts: 30200
Location: Fort Worth (D/FW Metroplex)
Joined: March 31, 2000

>>> "I'm not discussing it. I'm just observing that your decisions and claims about these issues has been bass ackward and that you are still hanging on to some pathological wish for blu-ray to fail." <<<

All I did was post a current article with a rather unsettling poll that I thought folks might find interesting and newsworthy. Then, as expected, you threw a hissy fit. I know you're trying to shoot the messenger, but since I also have Blu-ray that dog of your's won't hunt even if you put Dick Cheney in your cheerleader tunic to make us Progressives scatter! ;0)

>>> "You just said we're not discussing HD DVD and then you launch into this gushing endorsement of a dead format?" <<<

All I did was correct your misrepresentation; you can quit whining anytime.

>>> "You could not even deal with a simple post about Nielson ratings without making accusations like that above, peppered with childish "cheerleader" comments and other stupid insults only you could find funny. Sorry you were stupid enough to choose the losing format and sorry you were too hardheaded to understand what the numbers meant, both the specifications and the sales that clearly showed you picked the losing dog in the fight. If you're not prepared to admit you were wrong, you can't yet learn from your mistakes." <<<

Quite a few folks were amused because they saw your antics in a similar light. BTW, what was lacking in sophistication was more than made up for in irony, and if you can't stand the pepper, ...! ;O)

FTR, I'm not disappointed in the slightest about choosing HD-DVD. FYI, I have two HD-DVD players & lots of great titles (I'm picking up more all the time as they're discounted), received a $50 bonus card from Best Buy and 5 free HD-DVDs from the second promotion to go along with those obtained during the first player's promotion! I also purchased a Panasonic Blu-ray player earlier this year (with 2 bonus discs of our choice) and the best standard DVD player on the market is winging it's way here as I type this.

Life is good! :o)

Like I said there's a lot of industry analysis going on and some insiders are beginning to have second thoughts about Blu-ray as folks seem content with the more reasonably priced standard DVD; that's why I posted my observations and the link to the article, but I don't expect you to take my word for it. Jazz, just a hint: Try learning a few new gymnastics; the ones you're using here are getting predictable.

Respectfully (rah! rah),
AuPh

 

RE: Of course it isn't; that's because I've been truthful and you haven't., posted on May 22, 2008 at 09:44:05
Jazz Inmate
Audiophile

Posts: 63589
Location: Bay Area, California
Joined: April 5, 2000
 >> All I did was post a current article with a rather unsettling poll that I thought folks might find interesting and newsworthy. <<

No, that isn't all you did. You actively ignore any positive news or information about Blu-ray, ridiculed for months those of us who didn't ignore such info. Then, even after the format war is over, you have continued to focus on any negative information about blu-ray you could sniff out and pine about HD DVD doing better if it had won. You also continue to lie about "having no dog in the fight" even though the fight's over, you're embracing the carcass of your dog that is dead.

>> Then, as expected, you threw a hissy fit. <<

No, I just pointed out why the poll appears to be irrelevant and inaccurate. Several other denizens did, too. It's no big mystery that supplanting DVD and doing battle with downloadable or streaming technologies is going to be a major challenge for Blu-ray...that was largely the point in going forward with one format for HD rather than two. Not only didn't you understand the point at that time, now you're acting like it's a new observation or that it's a negative against Blu-ray. In both cases, you're wrong.

>> All I did was correct your misrepresentation; you can quit whining anytime. <<

No that's not all you did. You said HD DVD would have a better chance of supplanting DVD. But how is that logical when HD DVD couldn't even supplant Blu-ray, despite a head start in HD DVD's introduction? You simply fail to grasp any of the technical or market factors in this discussion.

>> Quite a few folks were amused because they saw your antics in a similar light. <<

Ole bore the brunt of you and these other idiotic "folks". He essentially posted Nielson ratings, other news items and you consistently levied personal attacks against him. Your attacks against me like the one in your previous post are clearly spilling over from the other forum, so I understood it has nothing to do with video (especially since you're too stupid to effectively analyze the issues). But Ole really didn't deserve to be bashed in the manner you and your "folks" bashed him.

>> BTW, what was lacking in sophistication was more than made up for in irony, and if you can't stand the pepper <<

You do realize that I never voted for bush/cheney, don't you?

>> FTR, I'm not disappointed in the slightest about choosing HD-DVD. <<

That's very clear. No need to state the obvious, auph. In fact you're proud of your failure to make the right decision.

>> FYI, I have two HD-DVD players & lots of great titles (I'm picking up more all the time as they're discounted), received a $50 bonus card from Best Buy and 5 free HD-DVDs from the second promotion to go along with those obtained during the first player's promotion! <<

It's your money; you can throw it away however you want.

>> I also purchased a Panasonic Blu-ray player earlier this year (with 2 bonus discs of our choice) and the best standard DVD player on the market is winging it's way here as I type this. <<

I bet you can find a good S-VHS machine and laserdisc player for cheap too! Hurry up. Ebay is calling your name. Get those titles cheap, auph!

>> Life is good! :o) <<

Yeah, but wasting your money is bad. you think you need to collect dead formats. There's a word for that: obsessive compulsive. It's nothing to be proud of.

>> Like I said there's a lot of industry analysis going on and some insiders are beginning to have second thoughts about Blu-ray as folks seem content with the more reasonably priced standard DVD; that's why I posted my observations and the link to the article, but I don't expect you to take my word for it. Jazz, just a hint: Try learning a few new gymnastics; the ones you're using here are getting predictable. <<

Auph, few new technologies successfully supplant established formats. It doesn't require much analysis to understand that. Thankfully, the industry is moving forward with one clear winner in the HD format war. The only ones who think the losing format should have won are embittered HD DVD adopters like you. But even they seem to understand that HD DVD is now dead and it's not worth blowing more money on the format. You apparently are slow to realize these things.
-------------

Call it, friendo.

 

My apologies for misunderstanding your motivations, posted on May 26, 2008 at 17:16:34
racerguy
 I'm so used to reading the emotional drivel from Blu-ray fanboys that I made a (bad) assumption about your motivations in questioning the results. Sorry.

As to the rest: I still believe your analysis of the poll methodology is faulty. And yes, I did indeed design several polls, not just simply administer them.

 

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