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In Reply to: RE: gotta disagree. posted by Analog Scott on June 24, 2008 at 13:01:21
The movie probably cost at least $120,000,000 to make and advertise (that's a fairly conservative estimate), and even taking into account world-wide ticket potential, until it hits the streets as a DVD rental Get Smart will be lucky to make it's money back. In fairness to the film, the fact that it opened at a bad time may have been unavoidable, but Pixar's WALL-E is likely to roll over anything up against it the next week or so.If the competition wasn't as heavy this coming weekend, who knows, Get Smart might have recovered some momentum with word of mouth interest as you've suggested. But the clock is running and theater owners want full capacity for screens, especially during summer blockbuster season. WALL-E is already getting great early reviews and the hot new action flick Wanted is getting high marks as well. I guess we'll have to wait and see what the weekend brings.
The rule of thumb for audience impact is around 50% for 2nd weekend box-office (not bad for a $100,000,000 opening weekend, but terrible prospects for a $38,700,000 opening); if a movie breaks a lot bigger than 50% it may have legs, much less than 50% and it's hasta la vista, baby.
My prediction (and it's no foregone conclusion, by any means): If this coming weekend's numbers for Get Smart aren't a lot better than 50% of the initial weekend's gross you'll be 'spying' it at the dollar houses by the second or third weekend in July, ...and Max can't afford to miss it by this much. ;O)
I want to reiterate, I'm not criticizing the film nor making a judgment call in respect to the acting, script or concept, it's just an objective take on the narrow window films have to find an audience in the summer marketplace. However, that said, if I were allowed one general observation about films with origins LIKE Get Smart (modern comedy films derived from vintage comedy television series), the track record hasn't been great.
Respectfully,
AuPh
Edits: 06/26/08Follow Ups:
And Get Smart is up to $77 million.
"You can safely assume you have created God in your own image when he hates all the same people you do."
Wall-E opened against a sleeper hit (Wanted), which pulled in $51 million. I suspect that Wall-E will get a huge bounce this week with the July 4th holiday family crowds (I predict this weeks Box Office take will carry it well over the $100 million mark while Get Smart continues to slide. The biggest competition for Wanted next weekend will be Hancock (both are action films for older audiences), but since Hancock is only garnering so-so reviews the weekend outcome for which does better financially is a toss-up. My prediction: Wall-E will be #1 at the Box Office again next weekend.AuPh
I mean... if you're going to apply ti consistently.Of course there's no doubt (and never was) that it'll do better than Get Smart... but it's supposed to.
"You can safely assume you have created God in your own image when he hates all the same people you do."
Neither of us can answer that one; we can only speculate and contribute informed opinions. The labeling of something as a HIT or a MISS, a blockbuster or a bomb, etc., has many variables. In addition to the costs versus grosses, there is also repeat showing value, international sales figures, prospects for video rental & sales, and whether the film received critical acclaim or dismissal. The last factor isn't crucial because audience appreciation is unpredictable, but critical acclaim can't be ignored in assessing film's longevity and return on investment.
My "formula"[sic] isn't a crystal ball! I never stated unequivocally that I would predict an outcome; all I did was to venture an informed opinion given the facts. My observations are based upon the timing of each film's release in a crowded summer schedule with lots of attractive films competing for the same dollars in the midst of a recession, ...as if the unchartered multiplex 'waters' weren't treacherous enough for the studios.
Still, the bottom line ($$$) is the primary focus of this thread and it's going to take a couple of weeks to see where all the chips finally fall.
May I politely suggest that if you're trying to turn this thread a pissing contest, it will serve no useful purpose, except perhaps your eventual embarrassment.
Cheers,
AuPh
you yourself declared the Get Smart opening as not being very good (based on the cost of the movie) but the WALL-E opening was very similar (again, based on the cost of the movie).So either they both had good openings or they both had mediocre ones.
As for the long term... again there's no doubt (and never was) that WALL-E will make more money.
"You can safely assume you have created God in your own image when he hates all the same people you do."
> > The movie probably cost at least $120,000,000 to make and advertise (that's a fairly conservative estimate), and even taking into account world-wide ticket potential, until it hits the streets as a DVD rental Get Smart will be lucky to make it's money back.> >
It doesn't work that way. There is a pretty reliable formula for predicting gross revenues based on the opening weekend and viewers' ratings. This movie did half it's prodction cost on the first weekend. Generally speaking if a movie does 20% of it's production cost on opening weekend it will break even. Get Smart will definitely be a profitable movie and will have a sequel next year. Mark my words. I worked on a commercial for this movie and I can tell you the makers were just hoping they would do as well as The Love Guru.
> > In fairness to the film, the fact that it opened at a bad time may have been unavoidable, but Pixar's WALL-E is likely to roll over anything up against it the next week or so.> >
I'm sure it will but that will not prevent Get Smart from following the very predictable pathology of typical box office performance. By the end of next weekend it should be at around 65-70 million domestic box office. If so it is well on it's way to substantial profits.
> > If the competition wasn't as heavy this coming weekend, who knows, Get Smart might have recovered some momentum with word of mouth interest as you've suggested. But the clock is running and theater owners want full capacity for screens, especially during summer blockbuster season. WALL-E is already getting great early reviews and the hot new action flick Wanted is getting high marks as well. I guess we'll have to wait and see what the weekend brings.> >
I am sure Wall-e will do great box office. In this day of multiplexes it does not prevent last week's winner from continuing to do well. Mark my word, 65-70 million domestic gross by end of weekend 2.
> > The rule of thumb for audience impact is around 50% for 2nd weekend box-office (not bad for a $100,000,000 opening weekend, but terrible prospects for a $38,700,000 opening); if a movie breaks a lot bigger than 50% it may have legs, much less than 50% and it's hasta la vista, baby.> >
You know my prediction. Lets' sit back and see where the chips fall.
> > My prediction (and it's no foregone conclusion, by any means): If this coming weekend's numbers for Get Smart aren't a lot better than 50% of the initial weekend's gross you'll be 'spying' it at the dollar houses by the second or third weekend in July, ...and Max can't afford to miss it by this much. ;O)> >
The bottom line is the bottom line. I'll make another prediction, 140 million domestic gross. 90 million world wide and the expected take from DVD and cable from a movie that does total BO of a quarter billion. This would put Get Smart about 120 to 140 million into profit. Maybe more.
> > I want to reiterate, I'm not criticizing the film nor making a judgment call in respect to the acting, script or concept, it's just an objective take on the narrow window films have to find an audience in the summer marketplace.> >
I get what you are saying.
> > However, that said, if I were allowed one general observation about films with origins LIKE Get Smart (modern comedy films derived from vintage comedy television series), the track record hasn't been great.> >
Generally I am against the whole idea. Unfortunately many lesser such productions have actually done very well. Scooby Doo and The Flintstones come to mind.
A decent weekend and they will have doubled the first weekends take.
"You can safely assume you have created God in your own image when he hates all the same people you do."
I know the formula that you're talking about, but there are other formulas in respect to production costs which take into account marketing and are a bit more accurate when comparing gross profits to outlay. Personally, I think your predictions are overly optimistic, but I could be wrong; we'll just have to wait and see what the next couple of weeks bring and how the trades finally assess Get Smart.
Cheers,
AuPh
My estimates did include all costs and revenue sharing. the formulas that are based on production costs don't ignore everything else. Theose other costs tend to fall in line with production costs.
...at least by Hollywood math for features trying to compete with summer blockbusters. Let's just be patient and see what the trades say about Get Smart in a couple of weeks, OK?
Cheers.
AuPh
missed it by that much
:o)
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