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In Reply to: RE: Barring perceived software/hardware issues it boils down to the cost of the players & availability of desirable films. posted by Audiophilander on June 13, 2007 at 00:34:56
I acquisced to the "early adopter" price knowing full well a year would bring a more mature product at lower prices. I could no longer hold out with an all-too-brief moratorium on DVD purchases in anticipation of HD video content, but my display kept asking me to feed it HD sources. (And if it wasn't for the dual player, I may have opted for the game console; the PS3 picture also looked purty darn good on my screen).
I don't expect either format to disappear quickly. But if it happens it wil probably be HD-DVD. If Universal goes format-neutral, game over, no reason to buy HD-DVD except for current (temporary?) hardware price advantages. The lukewarm (current non-support) from Fox for Blu-Ray is disturbing. A slew of desirable titles got put on hold and they are still holding back (BD+ DRM ? BD-J ? disc manufacturing capacity issues ? poor sales ? 2nd thoughts ?).
A lot can happen in the run-up to the Christmas season. Which movies are going to be released on which formats for the holiday season ? How much will prices fall for either format ? Will there even be mass market adoption or is HD to be relegated to a niche market ?
Follow Ups:
It's part of the digital revolution that's upgrading television viewing from 4:3 Academy to 16:9 WS and from 460P to 760P and on to 1080I & 1080P); I believe that this is the driving impetus to higher resolution video distribution & software.
The way I see it, and the reason why this isn't comparable to earlier video wars where formats orphaned leaving early adoptors in the lurch (as Beta was to VHS, CED was to LD & DIVX was to DVD), is that the technology and desire for market share is out-pacing the war strategies and being driven from the front end (HD television delivery systems). As the pricing of players is forced down through competition and dual format players become more readily available the format orphaning issue will become moot.
IMHO, the only things currently standing in the way of HD format acceptance are 1) competitive hardware and software pricing, as in competitive with the current SD format players and software and 2) region coding issues which may restrict playing legit releases of prized international film fare once it's transfered to European and Asian HD formats. Note: This is another area where Blu-ray (in particular) may meet resistance from international film collectors as HD-DVD hasn't required a vigorous region lock-out as part of it's codec, but the ease of acquiring content from other regions is a factor to consider.
AuPh
If BD+ works (and I'll be surprised if it doesn't get hacked effectively), Blu-Ray will have a huge advantage from a studio perspective.
I agree I'd rather not worry about region coding. HD-DVD has this advantage going for it. I'm just not convinced of HD-DVDs long-term longevity. Who is more likely to "Cry Uncle" first: the Blu-ray exclusive studios: Sony, Fox, and Disney; or Universal (HD-DVD exclusive) ? Or none of the above, in which case the retailers are doomed to support HD dual inventories.
I think that it's one of those "if ya snooze you lose" scenarios and the Studios are well aware of it having been caught napping before. The support for one format over the other is soft for a good reason, and that reason is the unpredictability of consumer acceptance.
Consumer acceptance, as I see it, is based on a variety of factors:
1) Price point for hardware & software
2) Backwards compatibility with existing SD format software
3) Picture quality on the current display device the consumer owns
4) Availability of highly desired films to showcase that quality
Even though Blu-ray seems to have the upper hand with the majority of studios, the aggressive lowering of prices for HD-DVD hardware and availability of popular titles will probably impact public acceptance since the two formats are virtually indistinguishable quality-wise based on recent comparisons. Studios are beginning to opt for releasing key titles in both formats knowing that consumers will sit on the fence if forced to forgo purchasing a favorite movie because it was released on the 'wrong' format. So, with dual inventories and similar picture quality it will become more of an issue of pricing than availability in the near future.
As an aside, even though technical geeks would like consumers to believe that disc space is an important consideration, what really matters is perceived picture quality in A/B comparisons, and since picture quality is roughly equivalent the greater space on Blu-ray may not matter one iota in the scheme of things. Unfortunately, even with the added disc space the facts don't appear to favor SONY because, 1) so far the two formats are virtually indistinguishable when playing movies, 2) Blu-ray discs, which require the Durabis coating (see below), are more difficult to produce in quantity and therefore more expensive, and 3) SONY's Blu-ray machines are far more expensive than their HD-DVD counterparts.
Finally, the region coding issue which favors Studios is only seen as an undesired obstacle to savvy consumers. Most consumers aren't especially concerned with the piracy issues because they only buy high quality legitimate releases anyway. If anything, consumers probably see the robust copy protections and region coding as just another means to tack higher costs onto the product while restricting viewer's options.
> > > "I'm just not convinced of HD-DVDs long-term longevity. Who is more likely to "Cry Uncle" first: the Blu-ray exclusive studios: Sony, Fox, and Disney; or Universal (HD-DVD exclusive) ? Or none of the above, in which case the retailers are doomed to support HD dual inventories." < < <
Good points, but the bottom line is that this isn't going to be a matter of which format cries "UNCLE" first, it's going to be decided by the "Dutch Uncle" represented by Studios and the spending habits of the Studios favorite nephews and nieces, ...the CONSUMER! For awhile the dual inventory issue will probably remain unresolved, but eventually lower prices and/or reasonably priced dual format players will make this a non-issue as well for retailers with limited shelf space.
Next-up, I predict thin-line cases for Blu-ray & HD-DVD discs. :o)
Cheers,
AuPh
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