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In Reply to: RE: informative internet magazine posted by Ole Lund Christensen on June 26, 2007 at 12:52:07
Still focused on weekly numbers?. That's for the week ending June 17.
Here's the top 10 discs *total*, as of May 27, with amounts sold, not just percentages listed by studio:
1. Warner - The Departed - 100,500
2. Warner - Superman Returns - 84,100
3. Sony - Casino Royale - 83,600
4. Warner - Batman Begins - 53,500
5. Paramount - MI:3 - 51,400
6. BBC - Planet Earth - 44,700
7. Warner - Happy Feet - 40,100
8. Warner - Goodfellas - 38,200
9. BVHE - The Prestige - 34,700
10. Sony - The Fifth Element - 33,800
enjoy,
Jack
PS HMM clearly shows that in total sales, BD is only ahead by 59:41 or 1.44:1. It also shows BD LOST ground last week compared to YTD. Take that for what its worth.
Follow Ups:
Question: Are these figures for the US or for the whole world?
Comment: HD DVD was released months earlier in the US than in Australia, and BD was actually first out the door here by 2 months. BD sales here are probably relatively stronger here than in the US for that reason, but the fact that BD sales are stronger in the US on a week by week basis and in total, given their late start there, does say something. HD DVD's failure to capitalise on their advantage of being first by releasing product in other countries prior to BD may work against them long term and also says something about their commitment to those other parts of the world where they released second: little or no commitment.
Question: Planet Earth—are figures for BD, HD or aggregate of both?
Comment: Hard to tell what some of these figures mean when a title has been released in both formats and format isn't included in the data.
General comment: where things are now is interesting but what will count a lot more is where things are a bit further down the track, say by year end. Toshiba has just downgraded it's forecasts for hardware and software sales which does not look promising. I haven't seen any forecasts come out of Sony for BD over the next 6 months. Weekly sales comparisons are interesting but are strongly influenced by just what new discs got released that week. A popular release for either format will sway those figures easily. Monthly figures,YTD, and cumulative figures are probably more indicative of how things are travelling because they won't be affected by the same immediacy factors as the weekly comparisons so I wouldn't read too much into any single week comparison, regardless of which side it favours. Overall, I think the data to date favours BD, especially when HD's 5-6 month early start advantage in the US is taken into account. HD lost its total to date lead very fast once BD got released and it hasn't been able to regain it. That fact, coupled with Toshiba's sales estimate downgrades for the rest of the year, is disturbing.
David Aiken
I *think* the numbers are US, but that is most of global anyway. The numbers are both formats combined, where applicable. Unlike most, Planet Earth has sold more on HD DVD by quite a bit.
HD DVD had a slump in Q1,where it didn't put out very many titles, that it never really recovered from.
As for sales estimates, I would'nt worry about them. Last year Sony predicted 6 Million PS3s would be sold by last Christmas, and right now there are 3 M woldwide(2m in US). At least Toshiba is honest about it.
Sales have been alot slower than anyone would have predicted, on both sides. A year after starting, and there has been no real growth in HD sales. This "war" is going very slowly, and I suspect both formats will be around for quite a while.
The low numbers speak for themselves.
When the top seller is only 100,000 for both formats together, sales are pathetic.
Jack
so far SONY PS3 is the only product selling in millions. And it has not sold millions of blu ray movies.
Not so with these HD players. Folks don't have what they need let alone buying another receiver (if they have one to begin with) to take advantage of the bigger sound quality.
The sound argument, usually given by BD fanboys, doesn't wash. Most people that jump into HD will do so for the picture. Sound will be secondary. If they already have 5.1 then they already know how to hook things up. If they have stereo, then they'll do that. If they have nothing, then they won't bother, HDMI carries picture and sound to the TV. Contrary to popular beleif, they will not be intimidated by the options, they will just opt not to use them. HDTVs do come with speakers.
On the flip side, sales clucks will be pushing new receivers that take HDMI input. Also this fall, look for Onkyo to bundle its new HD DVD player with their new HT receivers.
Just some random thoughts...
Jack
Folks didn't need anything more than they already had for a connection of the DVD player to their TV.
It is interesting that there is a format war so to speak with prices this early in the game with so few people involved.
.
You don't feel the intent is for a title to only be released just in HD format in the future? I guess that will be the telling factor, to see if it can/will supplant DVD.
I don't know if SACD ever planned to ever try to supplant CD per se but pretty much now all know that isn't going to happen. However, some (but very few labels) are now issuing only the hybrid upon release instead of both the CD and SACD title.
.
And with an attatchment rate of less than 1, the PS3 isn't selling alot of movies, as you say. Add the fact that there is now, world wide, about 1/2 the number of PS3s that Sony claimed they would sell by last Christmas (in the US), and you have a major dud. If you look at the fact that BD stand alone players aren't selling worth a damn, then you realize, that BD is little more than a movie format for the PS3.
And still, the specs aren't finalized.
The word incompetent comes to mind.
Jack
Jack,
You're not going to win me over when you say "I *think* the numbers are US, but that is most of global anyway." I'm part of the rest of the globe and being reduced to a pimple on the US' arse for the purpose of this discussion does not predispose me to view your views favourably. :-)
Can you be a little more tactful about the rest of the world? After all, Toshiba and the HD people ignored us for over 6 months before deciding to release their products here 2 months after Sony and BD hit the market, a mere week or two after their US release. Who do you think cares most about customers here? I don't think it's Toshiba and HD, and that sends a very clear message to me.
You also said "The low numbers speak for themselves.
When the top seller is only 100,000 for both formats together, sales are pathetic."
Yes, you are right on that point. The sales aren't good but I have to wonder what the reason for that is. I think part of the reason is that the public doesn't like a format war. No one wants to take a risk on a product and get burned and the odds are that at the end of this war those who bet on one of the two competing systems will be burned. The worst case scenario is that the whole hi-def thing fails and every customer gets burned, no matter which side they picked.
Another part of the reason may well be bad information from dealers. I've been contemplating purchasing a BD player and asked some questions yesterday in a major retail store that sells a lot of plasma and LCD screens and has a hi-def display running with a BD player. I was confronted with ignorance, and there's probably no other way to say it. No concept of what was involved, no discussion of features of competing BD products, nothing. If I said "I want one of them", he could have sold me one. As to answering a question about it, forget it. If a customer walked in, saw the BD movie running and was impressed and started asking questions about hi-def and what the differences were, I hate to think what they would have been told. That's hardly an approach that's designed to move product for the store, much less get hi-def players sold.
If you keep shooting yourself in the foot, eventually the holes you create will leave you with no foot to shoot. Toshiba did it here for HD DVD by failing to get in first and letting BD get a 2 month jump on them. Stores are doing it with hopeless marketing. Sony does it by botching the quality of some of their releases. The marketing stupidities make you wonder whether anyone really wants to win or whether they're just trying to see if they can come up with a new way to sell boat anchors.
David Aiken
I meant no offense, but right now, the vast majority of (the few) sales is in the US. Its nothing personal, but we had a head start, so there's more releases available here than other places. That's not so much of an issue with HD DVD, since it doesn't have region coding, but it is more of one with BD.
While the "war" may have some effect on sales, the biggest factor, IMO, is the fact that most people are very happy with DVD. Most just don't think the difference is worth the extra money. Now, if the players and discs get down to DVD prices, then we've got a shot. I still think both will end up being niche products-hey, laserdisc was a niche product, and it lasted a couple of decades. :-)
Jack
No offence taken—I did insert the smilie for good reason.
Yes, the US did have the head start but only for HD DVD because it seems that Toshiba and the HD DVD side decided not to care about anyone else. That may have been a critical mistake. I don't know how much of the decision to get BD out of the door fast in other parts of the world was determined by the fact that HD was ignoring them but it was probably a very good marketing decision and it also probably hasn't done HD DVD any good.
The region coding on BD annoys me. In Australia, DVD players are region free because of a court decision that said it was illegal to prevent access to material on discs encoded for other areas. The Australian courts apparently took the decision that people had the right to be able to play discs from other regions which were legally acquired, either by purchase in other countries and brought back into Australia by the purchaser, or by purchase over the internet. DVDs released here are region coded—the court decision did not restrict the right of DVD makers to regionally code discs and choose their disc release strategies—but it did result in pretty well every player now sold in Australia being region free. I've heard no comment about whether that region free status for players has followed through to the hi-def players or whether that battle is going to have to be fought again. I'm not overly worried about region coding on discs if players are region free.
I think you may well be right about DVD quality being 'good enough' for most people given the price differential for players. The difference between DVD and hi-def disc prices here doesn't seem as great in relative terms as it appears to be in the US. A lot of BD discs here are selling for anywhere between roughly the same price as some new release DVDs to a few dollars over. On some the difference is greater. Our new release DVD price is significantly higher than yours—often between $30-40 Australian which is roughly equivalent to $25-34 US. More than a few BD discs are being released at the $35-40 Australian mark. The disc price isn't a major issue for me on that basis. I keep hanging off because I'd like a machine that can handle both the Dolby and DTS new audio formats, and none seem to handle the new DTS formats yet, and which incorporates the BD video changes coming in later in the year. I can't see the point of buying a machine which can't provide all of the features of the format. Hopefully by the time such machines appear, prices will have fallen a bit anyway.
David Aiken
> > > Yes, the US did have the head start but only for HD DVD because it seems that Toshiba and the HD DVD side decided not to care about anyone else. < < <
That's not quite right. I don't know how competative they are down under though. Japan is BD mostly because of recorders, they aren't buying movies. Europe is still up for grabs and is still compettive-especially since Europeans can get movies from the US, thanks to no region coding. China will supposedly be going HD DVD using their own codec, and manufacturing their own players (only a different chip than what the west uses). .
Its still way too early to jump to any conclusions, despite the FUD spreaders. Time will tell what really happens.
enjoy,
Jack
What they are getting themselves into buying into one or the other format at this point. I guess the statistics are available as you say FWIW but no conclusions can or should be made with regard to what one should buy into based upon those.
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