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In Reply to: RE: Jack, I don't like it. posted by Duilawyer on November 01, 2007 at 17:19:36
How many A2s are they trying to sell at this price: 50K units of unsellable stock at the original list price or millions of units newly built specifically to steal the market before Blu-ray can achieve sufficient economies of scale to bring a competitively priced unit to market ? The replacement Toshiba A3s have been marked down to around $200 as well. Blu-ray's cheapest player is at least double this price. Is Toshiba making a profit at $200 with this player ? If so, Blu-ray could be in trouble. Though I have to wonder if Blu-ray has any kind of Black Friday sales on the table (close-out of the profile 1.0 players perhaps?)
OTOH, if player sales don't result in significant increase in HD DVD movie sales, HD DVD could be in big trouble. Toshiba has to deliver on software sales or Warner's could deliver a crippling blow by going Blu-ray exclusive by February.
Follow Ups:
Software sales. BD wins week to week. Now a big influx of players may help somewhat but not if the buyers are folks who already owned a player taking advantage of a low low price. Goodness knows what percentage that may be though. Many are buying as gifts for relatives or friends from what I understand also.
Count me in on that one. I bought one for myself (insurance policy and maybe muck around with PIP/IME or a giveaway present) and another for sister. At that price, you can't lose. Good thing the store ran out; I don't know how many I might have been tempted to buy.
A handful of mostly Universal movies at $14.96. "12 Monkees" was the only one I might have been interested in but I'll want to read the reviews. Universal has been known for mediocre releases. Also, lack of lossless audio is a hindrance.
Now to figure out how to get in on that 5 free movie deal....
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The 5 free by mail rebate was extended thru 02/28/08.
Perhaps maybe it ended for the A2 though I'm not sure that is the case either.
the five movie deal that Toshiba offered with purchase eneded oct 31.
If people are waiting until Xmas to give them, then software sales won't show much of anything in the way of increase until early next year. Of course, if people are giving them now, there may be a slight increase.
We'll see.
Jack
It's not enough to dump HD DVD standalone players into the market; you have to demonstrate HD DVD software sales to the studios.
Even though it wasn't on sale. I'm sure lots of people are buying 1 or 2 discs. It won't take much to make a reasonable boost, since the numbers are so low to start with. Since Walmart doesn't participate in the Videoscan/Neilson numbers, we will probably never know, but the studios will.
Jack
I wouldn't call them unsellable, they have been Amazon's #1 selling DVD player for quite a while.
What I've heard, and I don't have a link, is that Wally World got about 2 million A2s. Remember, Wally World doesn't deal in small quantities of anything. If that's true, and if they sell well (big ifs) it will make a huge difference. Some of the discs will also be on sale.
Of course, if they don't sell well...
I assume Toshiba is making a profit on these,but I don't know for sure, they have specifically stated that these discounts are at the retail level.
I fully expect the BDA to have something up their sleeves as well for the holidays.
Yes, if Warner goes exclusive, either way, the loser will be hosed. Since they have always favored HD DVD, I don't really see why they would go BD.
Jack
I thought it was some local store near you. Slave Labor Mart may have indeed ordered 2 million. My mistake!
.
I went to my local Walmart this afternoon to pick up an A2, thinking that no Walmart customer would pay $100 for a DVD player when there are so many standard DVD players available for less than $50 there. I assumed that knowledge of HD DVD is so low among the general population that few would even know that it was different from a standard DVD player.
A Walmart employee told me they had 11 in stock when the doors opened at 8am and they were gone in 10 minutes. Does this mean if they had 100 of them at this store they would have sold them? Probably.
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That 1% is only 20,000 players. Estimates range from 50,000 to 100,000 sold this weekend.
Someone posted it on avsforum.
Wall Mart in October said no to a cheap China player.
They can't accomplish this near-term by going HD DVD exclusive because of anticipated Sony/Fox/Disney obstinance. However, going Blu-ray exclusive might end this war pretty quickly. Will A2/A3 player sales translate to significantly increased HD DVD movie sales ? We shall see.
Possibly near term, but long term it will, plus it may be better for them. If they go, that would mean a second studio defected, and perception is everything. The others will follow. Warner is BD's #2 studio, putting out 25% of their movies, just a few titles shy of Sony. Warner also co-owns many of the patents involved in HD DVD. Then there's replication costs (the subsidies won't go on forever), plus the BDA is still relying on a game console.
Warner really is the key to both formats, and they know it.
As you say, we will see.
Jack
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