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In Reply to: RE: 90,000 Toshiba A2 HD DVD players sold in 3 days ..... posted by ZS KEKL on November 07, 2007 at 00:09:15
The winner of the format war will be the company that can steadily get a good HD player to the market for under $100
All of the technical foolishness regarding the superiority of one format versus another is inconsequential if the average consumer cannot see any difference between the picture in the two formats, and one format can be played using only an inexpensive player, whereas the other one requires a $400 player.
Whatever the studios want, ultimately they will have to move in whatever direction the consumer decides to go. If Toshiba has figured out how to do this, and Sony hasn't, Toshibe will ultimately win the battle.
Come to think of it, there is lots here that reminds me of the old VHS vs betamax battle. I dont neeed to remind you the arguments then that said by Sony that betamax was a technically superior format. It was, too, but that didn't matter in the end.
Follow Ups:
That's an observation I've been making for quite awhile, and it doesn't surprise me in the least that HD-DVD has hit that magic under $100 mark. As I've noted several times, I have no dog in this hunt, ...but if Old Blu can't chase the price-point rabbit into the hole in order to compete with it's 'pup-start' rival, it'll be the pasture rather than the future. ;0)
> > > "I dont neeed to remind you the arguments then that said by Sony that betamax was a technically superior format. It was, too, but that didn't matter in the end." < < <
Astute observation. BTW, I chose VHS over Beta during that format war because I felt that SONY's Beta technology didn't have as much overall flexibility as VHS; also, Beta players and tapes cost more and provided less extended recording time (initially). Eventually Beta's flexibility and price point improved and both formats increased resolution that would eventually rival and surpass LD, but by that time Beta had become a niche consumer product focused more on industrial and media applications than mass acceptance.
IMO, format superiority is a very fluid thing, because what seems superior today may be bested by *ahem* 'out of the blue' technical advances tomorrow. The HD-DVD folks are already talking about the possibility of besting Blu-ray's gigabyte space availability through use of multiple layers and better encoding algorithm. If this breakthrough doesn't require new hardware it could remove any perceived Blu-ray advantage. In that regard, Ethernet port access for firmware updates is also a plus for HD-DVD.
So, besides the current gigabyte advantage, Blu-ray superiority seems to be limited to it's scratch resistant coating and uncompressed lossless sound. These are a plus no doubt, but the TDK Durabis coating is only available because the data layer is so close to the surface that Blu-ray discs wouldn't be robust enough for common user handling otherwise. The lossless sound has thus far been unimpressive because it apparently requires a special type of receiver to decode the lossless signal and so far few if any Blu-ray titles even supply lossless tracks. Also, it's arguable whether lossless packing will make much difference since other variables are involved (quality of amplification, speakers, etc.).
AuPh
Wal-mart claims to have taken a hit on the A2s with an "admitted" purchase price from Toshiba at $185 (the price in States with anti-dumping laws) though I'm sure there were other "monetary considerations".
I'm not sure Toshiba/Wal-Mart can make a profit at even the $198 price point for the A2s/A3s but we shall see.
Are the printer cartridges profitable enough to sell the printer at a loss?
Are the HD disks profitable enough for Wal Mart to sell the player at a loss? In selling each $99 player, Wal Mart has created a potentially long stream of profits from the sale of HD formatted disks, disks that would not have sold at all otherwise.
If the disks are to sell people have to have a player.
If Wal Mart sells groceries at a loss, it drags people into stores past more profitable merchandise with a higher margin. Sneaky people, those retailers.
D
If you assume for the moment just for giggles, that there will be only one format, and it will be adopted by the masses, then the big bucks will be in the patents and licensing fees. Potentially billions over the years.
Jack
Cheaper to shop at "mainstream" grocery stores...
Also, Wal-Mart, other retailers, and the studios want to maximize profits on software sales. Which means they need to keep the prices up wrt to DVD. Fine balancing act that. If Wal-Mart drops the HD media prices too much, the studios won't want to "play". OTOH, if they keep the prices high, it turns the J6P crowd away from HD media; DVD upsamplers would remain highly attractive. At the moment HD media prices are too high.
Folks will pay a premium if they feel they're getting their money's worth--plus a little extra. And it's a very affordable little luxury too: Just a few extra bucks here and there.
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