Video Asylum

Do you do not seem to know what an S curve means ?

212.149.228.203

Ole Lund Christensen

In Reply to: RE: Sure, Blue Cheerleaders follow curves & speculate on market penetration, but will support hold up over time? posted by Audiophilander on December 05, 2007 at 10:44:20

The S curve predict, that it will hold hold up. These sales curves are well researched. So from a few very early numbers, the rest of the curve can predicted. Like when will 50% of the population own Blu Ray movies.

Nice photo :-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function (Open in New Window)

Follow Ups:

The only only problem is that S-curve assumes the hardware sales can keep up... - oscar 14:05:51 12/05/07 (2)
I don't believe Blu-ray has achieved the mass market penetration/economies of scale (yet) to make that a reality for hardware sales in support of software sales. I'm also not convinced (yet) that Blu-Ray 50G production is ready to support a massive hike in software sales demand.
- True, but Sharp can make 500.000 Blu laser pr month. - Ole Lund Christensen 15:04:41 12/05/07 (1)
  and the early production limits seems gone.
  
  SONY is now close to 1 million Blu Ray players pr month. That does give economies of scale.
  
  Sharp claim, that they will be the leading maker of players. They sell OEM.
  - Here is the link to Sharp laser - Ole Lund Christensen 15:18:20 12/05/07 (0)
    google can edit it
    - http://tech.promaxum.com/?cat=794 (Open in New Window)

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