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69.233.11.113
Just want to see what happens when facts meet BS.
HD DVD commanded the lion’s share of unit sales for stand-alone high-def disc players, scoring a 62% unit share; Blu-ray held 37%. Due to higher price points, Blu-ray hardware cornered 52% of the revenue; HD DVD, 47%.
Paul Erickson, director of DVD and HD DVD market research at DisplaySearch, said that HD DVD’s retail pricing, which on average was 50% cheaper than Blu-ray stand-alones, spurred its Black Friday sales for the format. The most popular high-def models were Toshiba’s HD-A3, which many retailers sold for $199, and the Sony and Samsung Blu-ray players and PS3 model that sold for $399.
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-------------"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)
It's reasonable to think the more hardware there is, the more software sales there will be. Thus far, Blu-ray software sales continue to dominate despite the rash of HD DVD player sales. Of course, a bigger indicator is sustained sales over several months rather than the weekly snapshots over the holiday period, especially given the specials which are currently running (e.g. BOGOs, 5 free movies, etc).OTOH, it's hard to exclude the "PS3 effect". If you exclude the PS3, the attach rate for Blu-ray is far higher than for HD DVD. A partially valid reason why is that someone willing to put up $400 for a player is FAR more likely to then spend $30/movie than someone who bought $98 Toshibas. A more reasonable conclusion is the PS3 actually has a pretty decent attach rate. Hard to judge since most PS3s are actually used to play games.
> > > "OTOH, it's hard to exclude the "PS3 effect". If you exclude the PS3, the attach rate for Blu-ray is far higher than for HD DVD. A partially valid reason why is that someone willing to put up $400 for a player is FAR more likely to then spend $30/movie than someone who bought $98 Toshibas. A more reasonable conclusion is the PS3 actually has a pretty decent attach rate." < < <I think the argument about buying $400 players as opposed to $98 players could be turned completely around and assessed from the target demographic standpoint. It's far more likely that Joe Public, who both the Blu-ray and HD-DVD coalitions would dearly like to lure in & hook with their products, is not going to purchase $400 video players in any appreciable quantity regardless of the bells and whistles. That's still firmly ensconced in niche market and early adopter territory.
The free disc offers, which are still going on as I understand it, are certainly an enticement for purchasing players in both formats, but since the 5 free disc offers were the same for the $98 players on Black Friday as they are for the $400 players it doesn't take a math professor to see which deal is the most attractive!
It's also logical that most PS3 game consoles that also play Blu-ray discs will be used primarily as designed, for games, while Blu-ray and HD-DVD players specifically designed for that purpose will be more reflective of the actual market incursion for both formats.
Logic dictates that BR & HD disc sales will fluctuate dependent upon the popularity of the titles available. The only real indicators of market share worth comparing would logically be titles released on the same day on both formats at the same price point.
And Oscar, when you say "$30/movie" (I'll try to do this with just the right Soprano-style 'New Joyzie' accent) "If yer talkin' uhbout doze bozos whoze payin' da whole MSRP tribute, fuhgetaboutit. Dey wize'dup!" :o)
Seriously, movie collectors who buy HD or Blu-ray DVDs would have to be a few gigabytes shy of a full standard definition signal to ignore all of the loss-leader promotional sales offers and internet discounts. Heck, during the recent semi-annual Deep Discount extra 20% off SALE one could purchase a $30 HD-DVD and Blu-ray title (that's MSRP) for significantly less, usually well under $20 each with free shipping; in some cases, under $15! That's in the same ball-park as standard DVD prices just a couple of years ago.
And while I have no way of verifying the actual HD disc sales numbers, I'm confident that folks were buying large quantities of HD-DVD titles (and I assume Blu-ray as well) from Deep Discount on-line several weeks ago because the in stock HD-DVD titles that I purchased went to back-order very quickly while standard NTSC 480P DVDs remained in stock much longer (note: I'm still waiting on 2001 in HD, but all the rest arrived within a couple of weeks). I presume that these sales figures will show up in earnings reports for the next quarter.
> > > "Hard to judge since most PS3s are actually used to play games." < < <
This would be my assessment as well.
Cheers,
AuPh
I prefer the immediate gratification at Best Buy then waiting for Amazon, Deep Discount, etc... except when the price differential approachs $10+ (which happens all the time). Actually, Fry's is the better place to browse because they are close to price competitive with the internet sites. You might be genuinely savvy about price-shopping but I suspect quite a few more people don't bother with price-shopping. Also, given the BOGOs and price drops, It's become wise to hold up on new release purchases until the new release achieves "catalog" status with subsequent price drops. E.g. I'm leaning towards not buying Harry Potter until after a few months in hopes of a price drop and a better handle on the "State of the Format war"; "Blade Runner" ? not sure I'm going to wait on that one.
I just paid $73 for 6 discs from Amazon but I hear they've expanded the Warner BOGO so I might go fishing again....
I'm sure studios are looking at disc sales, but I bet they are also looking at the profit margins of each, both now and in the future for the bigger picture. How long are replication fees going to be subsidized? How much will it cost when Sony stops subsidizing BD replication? Sales numbers? I'm sure they are looking at sales of BOGOs Vs. normal pricing-which do you think makes them happier?
I'm sure the studios are painfully aware that only 4 million BDs (despite all the PS3s) and 2.5 million HD DVDs sold since inception. They are also aware that catalog sales aren't doing squat, which is probably one of the main reasons they went HD. Its not a pretty picture overall.
Just my 2 cents.
Jack
In the long-term, there won't be any replication cost differences (if any) between BD and HD DVD. Similarly with hardware cost differences when economies of scale kick in. Toshiba's only chance to cause Studio defection in favor of HD DVD to pre-empt the slow build up of Blu-ray production and maturation of Blu-ray profiles with dirt-cheap players. If they don't accomplish this soon, all the advantages swing in Blu-ray's favor long-term.
> > > In the long-term, there won't be any replication cost differences (if any) between BD and HD DVD < < <
I really doubt that. The protective coating alone adds cost, and time to the process. Its not like HD DVD replication costs will stay the same price-they'll go down too, and probably always be cheaper than BD, not to mention the actual replicators, which are already plentiful since all DVD replicators made in the last few years are designed to be quickly and easily convertible to HD DVD. Blu-ray replicators have to be made from scratch, and they aren't cheap. BTW, who do you think will pay the difference when Sony stops subsidizing BD, the studios or the customers?
OTOH, if either format makes the discs too cheap, the same as DVDs, the studios won't have any motivation to go HD at all.
Jack
Ín USA, HD DVD sell more stand alone player units. Blu Ray leads in turnover of stand alone units, and Blu Ray sell more movies due to PS3.
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