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64.12.116.195
I hear that the cheapest players will be down to $150 on black Friday.
BUT with the economy in the toilet few people want to spend an extra $10 on a disk, and for goodness sakes not if the TV they have is not 50 inches or larger.
At the end of the day, I think Blu Ray has about as much future as the Elcassette, marketed in audio for a short period of time as the medium that would provide cassette convenience with open reel sound. Or, for that matter, what happened to digital tape recorders even as analog cassette tapes are still around (and recorders still being made)?
Blu Ray may remain as a niche market for videophiles with the largest screens for a couple years more, but will ultimately be replaced by technology that is not only cheaper to manufacture disks, but does not require such a complicated and expensive to manufacture player.
The next generation high definition technology has to at minimum be a disk that is backwards compatable with the original DVD, and be cheap enough to manufacture such that prices can be similar to the current generation of DVDs. Most people really do not want to spend more than about $15 on a DVD, and particularly not if they see the quality improvement as marginal at best on their moderately sized TVs. The vast majority of people who are happy with the clarity of as standard definition DVD see no need to upgrade players or disks, and Blu Ray cannot survive the long term as only a niche technology for the videophiles.
I'm hearing that as we move into the holiday season, neither Blu Ray disks or players are flying off the shelves.
This does not surprise me at all.
Follow Ups:
It's one thing to get people to pony up $300+ for a player, quite another to get them to start collecting expensive Blu-ray software. There are probably less than 100 movies that I would consider paying even a $10 premium for and most of them are classics that aren't even on Blu-ray yet. Even so, if I can get (for example) One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest on DVD for $4.99 on DVD (actual recent in-store Best Buy sale price), would I pay $14.99 for it on Blu-ray? Possibly. But Best Buy is selling it for $29.99! No sale.
And I have a 106" screen. What do you think people with 40" sets are willing to pay as a premium over DVD? I'd say $2 or $3 at most. Unless that sort of price differential happens, Blu-ray will fail. Especially in this weak economy.
At least when HD-DVD was still competing you'd get the 2 for 1 sales. But the retailers are being awfully stubborn on Blu-ray prices and I'm not biting.
That was in the '90s. Accounting for inflation, Blu-rays are an absolute bargain and an enormous advance in quality over NTSC. I don't see what you guys are complaining about. Blu-ray is a new format that cost a lot of money to develop and bring to market. The price will come down as the years go by.
-------------Call it, friendo.
The 'big ignorance' is getting bigger with each new format released in anything. Combined with society's shorter and shorter collective memory, trying to sell anything remotely subtle like 'picture improvement' is becoming absurdly difficult.
That means, a lack of ability to hear and/or lack of caring about when sound is reproduced well and when it is reproduced badly.
(Don't get me started on tape vs. digital, or compression ratios...)
Also, no sense/no caring when a picture is of really high quality or when it is in fact quite a bit less so. The one thing that matters is that the screen is BIG.
(Don't get me started either on 35mm film and the new quest to make films on DVDs look like video by 'de-graining' them....)
For all the folks who care enough and have the ability to see that well-done Blu-Ray looks a heck of a lot better than the majority of conventional DVDs, you will have the hordes of Ipod-pounding, one-hand-photographing 'do not cares' who at best will think of us as 'elitist' if they ever even pause long enough to give a damn about the subject.
(Much like the word 'adult', the word 'elitist' is officially a bad word in the US; I have stopped wondering why..)
They should drop the price on Blu-Ray players and especially on discs; no doubt about it.
They are killing the mass appeal like this, because people don't even bother to read about it anymore after a short period. Instead, when they finally drop the price on the discs enough, most likely you will have more people returning Blu-Rays to the store complaining that they don't "play on their DVD players."
Physics don't lie. Faster tape, wider tracks, bigger negatives, more data per film or audio file, less compression, better reproducing systems.....these are timeless truths.
What unfortunately is changing (translation: going down the toilet) rapidly is the interest in getting 'the best', as opposed to getting the 'good enough' and while this attitude has always been there in the majority, it used to be "less lonely" to be in the minority.
Even your average Joe at some point could hear when a stereo sounded good, or see that going to the movies was much nicer than watching it on TV. Sarah Palin might call him Joe the Media Buff.
Nowadays, it's not just that it's a niche, but it is seen as almost fascist by some to suggest that, yes, it looks and sounds better, I can see it and hear it, and either you can't, or don't care enough to try. The appreciation of quality was never democratic enough for some people.
Blu-Ray is a terrific format for viewing films at home. Whether it succeeds or not has no bearing on its quality, much like any other good thing that got rejected by the masses along the way (be it from public fickleness or bad marketing.)
Best,
CC
"Physics don't lie. Faster tape, wider tracks, bigger negatives, more data per film or audio file, less compression, better reproducing systems.....these are timeless truths."
THANK YOU! I've been saying pretty much that for years!
Why bother to watch or listen to a program if the technical quality is not up to par?
iPod? Sure, great for traveling/hotel rooms etc. At home, iPod stays in the drawer.
.
BlueRay is a dying format and will not be around too much longer other than a niche product if even that. Stores like Netflix, Amazon, Apple, etc. are already (or will be) selling set top boxes that download movies and play them on your display; both SD and HD and at a cheaper price than Blu Ray disc. These boxes will replace both DVD and Blu Ray disc just like downloads are replacing CDs only even faster.
-------------Call it, friendo.
so what's it matter?
Eventually, everything has to move to blu-ray, what else is there? It's like vinyl and CDs in a way. As buyers buy new DVD players, they'll get blu-ray included.
Rentals drive the market and te only game gong is mail order any more. We have one Blockbuster left in town, 2 closed, Hollywood Video is gone and there are no independents left. I bought a DVD player when the video stores had the new releases in DVD. Now Netflix had blu-ray, at $150, maybe I'd upgrade, though with my Oppo upsmapler player, the quality is so good, it's hard to believe I'd be over whelmed.
-Rod
> > Eventually, everything has to move to blu-ray, what else is there? It's like vinyl and CDs in a way. As buyers buy new DVD players, they'll get blu-ray included. < <
:-) This is exactly what SACD and DVD-Audio supporters said about their respective formats. We've seen how that turned out.
Blu-ray appears to be destined for niche status just like all the rest of the recent physical media innovations. Mainstream consumers will stick to DVD like they did to CD until downloading of video content becomes more practical, then DVD will die off like CD is dying off.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=798272&page=144
The last page should give an idea of how things have been going lately. I don't know most reasonable forecasts could hope for more.
As far as sales of players and not jumping off shelves for the holidays, not sure where that is coming from. Last year, $99 HD players flew off racks at Walmart within hours! To top that all off, it was pretty well know that format was seriously lagging behind in the format war. Guess folks cannot resist bargains.
While they may not the top sellers amongst consumer electronics this holiday season, I surmise HDTVs and players will hold there own.
Looking at the Revenues figures is a bit misleading though. At a MSRP that is $10 or more higher per disc, I would expect a higher percentage of revenues by now. Funny how during the days of the frequent BOGOs and other sales, they used units sold (or they used units *shipped*), now they use % of revenues.
Look at the units sold from Kosty's post #4264. The numbers are OK, and a bit more relevant.
Jack
As prices of HDTVs come down and more people buy and watch programs in hi-def, how long will they tolerate movies on SD DVD especially when HD players will also come down in price as well as the software? :)
It will depend on whether or not disc prices come down, and what people are willing to pay for HD. If prices get too low, studios won't have any incentive to do BD. Also remember, that a good chunk of HDTV owners (40%?) don't actually watch any HD content.
OTOH, its possible that BD will become a mostly rentals media. With its high disc prices, and impervious coating, BD is almost made for rentals.
Just my 2 cents,
Jack
"Also remember, that a good chunk of HDTV owners (40%?) don't actually watch any HD content."
I've had HD for just over a month and am spoiled by HD content. If they're not watching HD content it's because they're simply not paying for it. This subject will only begin to wash out after the transition anyway.
I stopped buying films during the video tape era. I can listen to music over and over but watching a film that often is a stretch. Music video, concert footage is were the gold is but neither the artist or the man gets it. Currently music video editing/production sucks. I'm interested in seeing the entire group preform not just the lead. McCoy Tyner's "Guitars" CD/DVD is the start of an interesting direction I hope catches on.
Many/most people buy HDTVs because of the size (and flatness). I don't think you can even get a 42" or larger Tv that isn't HD anymore. Most just want their 50" plasmas to hang on the wall to watch Football games. Some think just because they have an HDTV, they are automatically watching HD, regardless of source. The switchover only effects those who are getting OTA signal. cable folks aren't effected, and may not wish to pay extra for HD, or worse, think just because its digital, it is HD.
JackEDIT: You do realize, that the switch over mandates switching to digital, not necessarily HD.
Edits: 11/01/08
...that most people believe the switch from analog to digital is a switch from non-HD to HD. Boy, are they going to be disappointed!
So many assume Digital = HD.
Most won't know the difference when the switchover happens.
jack
Recent numbers from the industry say that about half of HDTV owners don't use their TVs for HD content. The televisions were bought to watch SD DVDs in widescreen, or simply because Stretch mode makes the picture huge (and makes slim, athletic TV stars look overfed and chunky like "normal" people).
And surely not the last. The numbers game is the only game in town. Sort of like when HD DVD was alive:
Attach rate -- include the PS3 as a Blu-ray player so that the player-disc ratio looks bad compared to HD DVD.
Players sold -- don't include the PS3 as a Blu-ray player so the number of Blu-ray players sold vs HD DVD players sold looks bad.
Why should the BDA not play Spin the Battle?
There's no reason for the BDA to not spin. Indeed, they *have to* spin the numbers, just to look competent. Personally, I'm only interested in numbers of discs sold-to me its the only relevant info.
Jack
Just check out the linked item on Engadget.
I suspect there's as much truth in this pronouncement as in any other at the moment.
David Aiken
... there will continue to be a niche for Blu-ray IMHO. 40" HDTVs are CHEAP and that's probably all it takes to see the benefits of HD video over DVD video. What's going to compete with Blu-ray in the near-term other than HD VOD with it's distribution bandwidth issues?
The DVD market is largely tapped. The Studios will continue to have an interest in selling blu-ray versions of the same movies on an arguably better video format.
and probably the major hurdle to the "better" Blueray format.
nt
Can't rent many VHS tapes anymore.
SACD is still somewhere out there in a miniscule fashion.
It's the dichotmy of wishing for software qual to improve; and at the same time *hating* to replace equipment and replicating software purchases.
The only format that appears to be hanging in there w/ a large choice of hardware, new and use software, is the grand old LP.
And who can remember what the now gone competitor to blu-ray was...
Cost is the problem, and discounting blu ray players solves only half the "cost" problem. The high price of blu ray software will absolutely kill decent market penetration. Consumers won't buy a player if the software is too expensive.
Not to mention the "benefit" problem: I'm not sure the average consumer sees enough difference to justify the upgrade.
Frankly, if blu ray fails, I don't know about the future of physical media. Baby boomers like me want something physical, but my college-age son is perfectly happy with digital files. If they can solve bandwidth and distribution problems, then video-on-demand has a huge convenience factor. Therefore, blu ray needs to establish a foothold quickly, but I don't see it happening unless software (in addition to hardware) becomes more reasonably priced.
Format will go only so far until that happens and even still.
For now, I continue to shop good prices as I don't necessarily need a BD when it first is released. Renting has been my chief resource for enjoying both the extra audio and visual the format provides over SD DVD in many cases.
The economy isn't helping. But bottom line, when you can't convince a guy like me to buy in, you're in trouble. :)
I bought into DVD with one of the first models in town; the Sony DVP-S3000 I think. Cost me $950CAD, did not care, wanted it because I hated VHS re quality and convenience. Only one store here rented DVD's at the time, but I was willing to drive because the sound and picture quality were substantially better. I have a drop down screen with an 84" picture. Would I notice the difference going to Blue-ray(?), I'm quite sure. Does it irritate me that the rentals are more (I don't really buy discs, more on that later), yes.
Add to that the purchases are more expensive and the releases are not as common-place and you have a loser for me. I personally own around 25 DVD's, even after all these years. Heck, I have 5 DVD players, so only ~5 discs per player. :) But I'll usually only buy a disc under one of two conditions:
-I KNOW I'll watch the movie more than twice
-It's within a couple bucks of renting
If Blue-ray discs hit the same price AND they release more movies on it, I'd think about it. Otherwise I'll still pass.
For me, it's one, will the kids watch it 87 million times!
-Rod
You mean small people (like my wife:))? Actually, my wife runs a "daycare" out of our house, so we do have quite a few movies in that TV room. Because, yes, kids will watch the same movie back to back! We have none of our own however.
Several (most?) of the Bond films that just came out won't play on most of the stand alone players. This is worse than before-AFAIK, effected players are the Sharp, several Sammys,LGs,and the early Sonys. Lots of people sitting around waiting for FW updates. Fox does it again.
I can hardly wait until this happens during the holidays.
Jack
No new firmware for the Sharp player since June.
This is really getting ridiculous-the BD consortium's own incompetance is going to be more damaging to the format than HD-DVD ever was.
Yea, all that an $10 more per disc. I'm underwhelmed again.
I suspect Blu-ray wants to stay a niche product.
Jack.
For a niche videophile product, you have these big Blu Ray displays in the likes of Wal mart and Target.
If ever there was an "un"market for Blu Ray, I would think it would be your average Wal mart shopper.
I was in Target last Sunday and was surprised to see a small number of Blu-Ray titles selling for around $15! So someone is at least aware that the movies themselves need to be more competitive.
For now, if it's high-def on physical media that you want, Blu-Ray is what we've got, and I see no indication that any alternatives are on their way, or that anyone will step in to fill the void if Blu-Ray should fail. So enjoy the ride for however long it lasts.
Agree that it's a mess if fairly mainstream B-D titles won't play on B-D players that aren't so old themselves. But like it or not, the PS/3 is the gold standard for Blu-Ray compatibility, and will remain so for some time to come, and I think this has been pretty obvious for awhile now. Ironically, it's those exotic dual-standard players where I expected the biggest compatibility woes. Ironic, because the big selling point was that they were supposed to future-proof you.
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