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In Reply to: RE: AP article on HD v. Blu posted by Duilawyer on August 12, 2007 at 19:51:43
It took AP a year to figure out what early adopters and industry observers realized very quickly in HDTV format rollout.
-------------"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)
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They need to put an end to this format war so the fence sitters will jump off to support the "winning" format. I doubt both formats can survive and thrive together. This holiday season may result in a decisive winner.
IMHO. Both formats more than likely will lower prices on discs and players. J6P can reap good prices but won't be any closer to a survivor in the format war. I wonder what prices will be like for Black Friday for the software.
I really don't think the PS3 will drop further than $499 though for the holiday. Even so, it's a steal for its features at that price versus other BD players. Obviously it will go lower eventually but it will make for a nice holiday present for some lucky folks!
The 5 free movies for BD are pretty lame though given what is out there versus what is being offered. Better than nothing I suppose but that may change also.
Guess you figured out I'm leaning towards BD. It will not be both for me.
Don't be surprised to see significant movement detrimental to HD DVD interests.
Dual inventories and unresolved HD format wars won't help B&M retail stores' desire to use HD formats to maintain software revenue streams. Blockbuster has already made the move, can BB/CC be that far behind ?
And Universal has to know they can end the format war by going format neutral. Maintaining exclusivity and prolonging the "war" only means fewer people will be less willing to adopt HD. Or maybe they think HD VOD has higher revenue-generating potential ?
Despite the fact that it isn't 2:1, its 1.5:1 total. The difference is trivial ( <1M discs), especially considering we are talking about 1% of video sales. This is despite the fact that there are 5-8 times as many BD players out there than HD DVD players.> > > Dual inventories and unresolved HD format wars won't help B&M retail stores' desire to use HD formats to maintain software revenue streams. Blockbuster has already made the move, can BB/CC be that far behind ? < < <
So, does this mean they will no longer carry both Full screen and Wide screen versions of the DVDs now? We know how they all hate dual inventories. CC is pushing HD DVD now, and BB is carying both equally in my area. They'll carry whatever they can make a profit on.
The truth is, that both formats are going to be around for quite a while yet.
Jack
Not sure what players are coming out for BD that can compete price wise with the Toshs for the holidays. If the latter sell well be it the newer or older models, the software ratio will obviously change.
I do expect some will get the PS3 as a holiday present but that will probably be more for the video gamers than HD watchers so little if any increase for BD software sales from that.
This format war will not be resolved for the holidays IMHO.
Yet...Blu-Ray still maintains a software sales advantage. If Sony needs to drop the price on their players, I expect they will to keep the disparity low enough to keep folks investing in Blu-Ray over HD DVD because of the advantages in studio (software) support.
HD DVD only advantage is hardware pricing; everything else is against them, including public perception. I don't see how HD DVD can "win" against Blu-Ray; if anything, all they can accomplish is dragging down Blu-ray with them when HD VOD and/or next generation video format shows up.
BD maintains the software sales advantage strictly because of the PS3. That is their *only* advantage. Sony is also hemorrhaging money because they are subsidizing it. That's a short term gain only, since the masses won't buy a game console to watch movies. Even BDA insiders have admitted that they need to sell alot more stand alone players if they wish to "win" (as you put it).
Since sales of discs has totaled about 3.7M discs combined, 2.2M for BD, and 1.5M for HD DVD (inception to the end of July), I seriously doubt that anyone in the business seriously thinks the "war" is over.
With a difference of only 700,000 discs between the two formats, selling more HD DVD players can make a substantial difference. Whether or not it will, remains to be seen. This is where price will come into play.
It will be an interesting Q4.
enjoy,
Jack
Xbox!
We're riding the discounted PS/3 wave right now, but what if Sony really does return to $600 pricing once the 60 gigabyte consoles are gone?
Meanwhile, Microsoft cut prices on Xbox360 and the HD DVD accessory, and most importantly, Halo 3 is due soon, and in the past, Halo has been one of *the* most eagerly-anticipated games around.
I wonder how many folks bought this that own the XBOX 360.
I really do think there are a higher percentage of folks who bought the PS3 that utilize BD playback than folks/survey/bean counters think IMHO. It will be my main reason to buy one. The games and CD/SACD playback will be secondary as well as any internet access.
I seriously doubt Sony will let the PS3 prices rise again. If anything, they'll lower it for the Holiday season, perhaps in response to XBox360 price drops. Same with their blu-ray standalone players.
Let's put it this way: If only a small percentage of Halo 3 buyers also buy the add-on Xbox360 HD DVD drive or pick up an HD DVD movie for their existing drive, that would still be a big deal: Figure that Home Media Research says that combined, HD DVD and Blu-Ray movies sold 2.4M for the first six months of 2007. Well, the last installment of Halo sold 2.4M in it's first 24 HOURS, and 5 million in it's first month. And Microsoft just made that HD DVD drive a whole lot more tempting what with free movies and a price drop. What happens if even 2% of those buyers get an HD DVD movie while they're at the store ;-)
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Their Blu-Ray player comes out later, but exactly when, no one is saying yet.
- http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/hd-dvd/onkyo-readies-their-first-hd-dvd-player-for-a-fall-release-287973.php (Open in New Window)
When I saw how good standard DVDs can look played using an HDMI connection with a good upsampling player like the inexpensive Oppo 970HD (which I had originally bought for SACDs and quickly lost interst in for that purpose), I became much less intersted in buying a player for HD discs. It's not as good as the best HD that come over my satellite connection, but can be as good as quite a bit of the satellite HD. It looks a lot better to me than standard DVD and can certainly be satisfying as I sit on the sidelines. I don't buy many DVDs but just rent them. If one is building up a collection, that is another story. Then it might make sense to get an HD player and start buying one or the other formats.
Joe
For most in my opinion. I can see folks buying occasional titles for movies they just have to have but other than that, they will wait.
It is understandable most folks leaning towards doing nothing presently. Even if they do have a display capable to take full advantage of the audio and video this format war is far from over IMHO.
> > > Even if they do have a display capable to take full advantage of the audio and video this format war is far from over IMHO. < < <
Its more than that. Only about 40% of people with HDTVs actually have an HD source of any type. Most buy them for the size, and some think they are watching HD when they aren't. Most don't care. Many of those that know about it don't want to pay extra for it.
Jack
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