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Just read a very interesting article in Widescreen Review about why Paramount stopped releasing in Blu-ray and now only releases in HD-previously it supported both formats. Blu-ray unlike HD does not have a fixed set of specifications but is a fluid set of standards that hardware and software manufacturers are constantly changing. To make matters worse the hardware manufacturers can op out of many of these standards if they wish to. Thus the failure rate for Blu-ray is almost always going to be very high no matter what player you buy compared to HD. Plus and I guess this is a major point for Paramount- it is cheaper to manufacture a HD than a Blu-ray disc. Combine the above with a company like Samsung which does not provide timely updates for their players and has poor customer support but loves to issue a new player every month and you have a formula for failure. Sounds a little like Bush and Iraq.
Follow Ups:
Wow, on Blu-Ray and Iraq, you were 0 for 2 on this post. I guess hind-sight is 20-20 though. After the Beta think, I may have voted against Blu-ray for a while there too.
s
Stop breathing.
-------------"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)
While I agree with some of your points ;-), including the one about HD DVD being a more mature standard, I think if you buy a Sony Playstation 3, you are pretty much assured current and future Blu-Ray movies will play on it, because PS/3 is the 800-lb gorilla in the Blu-Ray marketplace, and any B-D movie that doesn't play on it has instantly lost a big % of viewers.
Most folks will probably want a B-D player which is either fully compliant with the B-D Profile 1.1 spec, or upgradeable to it, and all new models released after the end of October should be, and it's speculated that PS/3 will be so after a firmware upgrade, as it appears to meet all hardware requirements for 1.1. Although there's also a 2.0 spec which adds internet connectvity, I think 1.1 is really the one folks will really want.
Why choose one format exclusively? It's nice to be able to watch ANY high-def movie!
While a PS/3 might be a decent foundation for an unmarried geek's home entertainment center :-), there are a lot of people who can't imagine buying a game console for their living room or bedroom. They are going to buy a standalone player, not a game console.> > Most folks will probably want a B-D player which is either fully compliant with the B-D Profile 1.1 spec, or upgradeable to it < <
The manual for Sony's current entry-level player, the BDP-S300, states:
"This player supports BD-ROM Profile 1 only. Playback of later versions and BDs other than BD-ROM is not guaranteed. Since the Blu-ray Disc specifications are new and evolving, some discs may not play depending on the disc type and the version."
If the word gets around to the general public that a current $499 player is pretty much already obsolete, the already slim possibility of mass-market acceptance for Blu-ray will vanish like a soap bubble.
If the PS/3 is truly the only reasonable hardware choice for Blu-ray enthusiasts, Blu-ray won't even make it to niche status.
If Blu-ray is to survive, the BDA and its members had better get their acts together. Quickly.
Blu-ray is not a mature technology. It was not introduced long ago and has not existed for a long time in the marketplace. Early adoption has its risks. Most consumers will not buy blu-ray or HD DVD players for many, many years, if the formats survive.
-------------"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)
.
The mandate is for digital television, not high definition television -- there's a big difference. Besides, what you're more likely to see is widespread purchases of set-top boxes that convert the digital signals to analog which will allow today's non-digital sets to operate as usual.
Don't underestimate the appeal of those panels! Even now, the popular sizes are pretty affordable, and they're largely HDMI-equipped and 720p/1080i. Circuit City lists 19" sets starting at $269.99, and that's a pretty mainstream price if you ask me.
Especially when you can get a brand new and more advanced 50" Panasonic plasma for 1/3 the cost of what I paid for mine 4 years ago! My wallet, my wallet, my poor wallet!
Oh, well... it's still a beautiful plasma.
:-)
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And that won't be too far off. Of course that doesn't necessarily mean they will buy a high def player but obviously there is more of a chance they will.
I give Sony lots of credit for putting out a high quality 1st gen product and supporting it will timely firmware upgrades.
The difference in how long it took for SACD player and software prices to drop versus high res video is quite interesting. Maybe it is because there is a bigger war between HD DVD and BD than there was between DVD-A and SACD.
As I have said before, if Blu-Ray is little more than the PS3 format, it is guaranteed to be a niche product. Things have to work well on the stand alone players too. There also needs to be alot more stand alone players out there. This reliance on the PS3 is OK for the short term, but isn't healthy in the long run.
As for video 1.1, the BDA seems to be putting that off for as long as possible. What upcoming players are going to be 1.1 compliant? The 2 new Denons, one going for $2K, one slightly less. The 2 combo players by LG and Samsung. What else? Maybe the new Panny coming out? The two new Sonys are coming out Oct. 31. That's not an accident. They won't be compliant. I'm not sure any 1.1 discs are coming out until next year. I'm guessing that the BDA is putting off video 1.1 until next year either because they can't do it yet, after all it was postponed once already, or they don't want the messiness until after the holidays. At some point, customers with 1.0 players bought this holiday time are going to be in for a rude awakening.
Jack
And may never happen if disc prices continue to hover around $30 (this week not withstanding). Current Blu-ray players will continue to play Blu-ray disks (with the exception of the occasional fixable firmware glitch) and that's all you need to play the movie. At the moment Blu-ray is a niche and so is HD DVD; I don't expect that to change anytime soon.Maybe after Blu-ray has gotten it's act together:
put reasonably priced 1.1/2.0 profile players on the market (I don't even know/care what the profiles mean), drop Blu-ray movie prices close to DVD prices, and make HD DVD disappear is there a chance of mass market acceptance. This won't happen anytime soon, maybe in the for the next holiday season.
That still does not negate anything I said, which is that BD doesn't have its act together. You kindly confirm that. I'm actually beginning to wonder if they will ever have their act together.
Jack
Like it or not, studios will have the say over how their product is released and what features it includes. At least blu-ray provides a 50-gig framework in which to operate, which is significantly more than can be said of HD DVD.
-------------"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)
And frankly, I doubt that many potential buyers would know or care whether their movie is Java-enabled. Next-gen features like picture-in-picture may remain rare in B-D land, but again, no great loss to an audience who have just come from the DVD world.
But for now, when given a choice between B-D and HD DVD releases of the same movie, unless the B-D version offers something like a higher-quality soundtrack, I'll generally opt for the HD DVD, because it's likelier to have richer bonus content.
They'll have to rewrite the rules about players coming out after Oct. 31. That's a PR nightmare. Do you think the BDA would admit that they cannot do what HD DVD has done since inception?
Disney wants the features, and has already claimed Snow White will come out late in '08 as 1.1. Its going to be *ahem* interesting when people pop it into their 1.0 machines expecting lots of interactive goodies for the kids.
Interesting times ahead. :-)
I've stopped buying BDs for the time being.
Jack
Releasing the Jack Ryan HD DVDs without material advertised on the box and promoted in previous announcements...now that doesn't look good.You mention a hypothetical PR nightmare. Well, this is a real one. And yet the problem with this HD DVD box doesn't bother you at all. Interesting.
-------------
"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)
None on my player. So long as folks stay current with firmware, there shouldn't be very much. Sony appears to be very good about having updates available BEFORE a new title is released as it appears some are not being tested on players by the studio. Cannot say for sure about the other player manufacturers.
The BR format update concerns the addition of interactive features and has nothing to do with a player's ability to play a movie released with new technical features, interactive or audio. All players have the ability to flash their firmware to add certain upgrades, but this may not include some or all of the interactive features. PS3 has firmware to add features for SACD and additional Blue Ray high resolution audio to existing players. Some new PS3 players have removed the SACD playback feature. A few producers held back releasing their films in BR until the recent interactive standard was released. This was to make sure their releases worked as intended in players that were actually available to the public.
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