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In Reply to: RE: Blu-ray momentum unstoppable !!! posted by oscar on December 24, 2007 at 22:10:33
Seeing how you've been a Blu-ray fan since the beginning and spouting its' virtues it shouldn't be a surprise that your brother is fascinated with the format.
As far as Blockbuster, since they are known to carry Blu-ray and not HD DVD in there outlets doesn't it make a lot of sense that your nephew would get far more request for Blu-ray.
You Blu-ray fanboys sure are full of a lot of wishful thinking!
The majority of the public who actually prefer Blu-ray over HD DVD is only because it has a cooler name (well, and maybe because of a few movies). After all, how else would you explain paying more for something that you can't tell the difference ;)
Blu-ray Momentum => Zero!!!
Follow Ups:
... If both formats are still around.
Actually, my brother hasn't displayed any interest in Blu-ray or HDTV for that matter, nor has there been much conversation on the subject until very recently.
And speak for yourself if you haven't seen/heard the differences. The technical differences pointing out theoretical reasons why Blu-ray PQ/SQ can be better are there. The only issue is has this technical superiority manifested itself in discernible PQ/SQ differences? I believe the differences are there, but others disagree. YMMV.
Within a year(?), do you know how many people were predicting that Blu-ray would finish off HD DVD by the end of 2007. Now Blu-ray needs another year (if it can even happen in a year) to compete on price. Have you considered that a year (or more) may be too long and will actually spell the end or the beginning of the end for Blu-ray. I believe the reason that Blu-ray is still around at its' higher prices is because of good marketing (market confusion and a cooler name!), not because people actually think it looks any better than HD DVD. And please, give us a break on the "features superiority" thing. Most people buy the players to put in a disc and watch an HD movie period. The features are at best just a novelty that will wear off with a bit of time. But if it really matters to you guess what - HD DVD has them NOW as well as being reasonably less expensive. I also see you are still harping about disc size and bandwidth as if either makes a difference because they certainly don't seem to to all the people who have chosen to go with HD DVD.
"And speak for yourself if you haven't seen/heard the differences. The technical differences pointing out theoretical reasons why Blu-ray PQ/SQ can be better are there."
No, speak for yourself and please give us another break on the "theoretical reasons" silliness. Even you question it in your answer. Of course there's technical differences between video and audio formats but that doesn't automatically mean that they can be seen or heard. Even if Blu-ray is technically better that doesn't mean that a difference can be discerned by the human eye. Videophiles seem to think that there are no limits to the resolution of human sight just as audiophiles seem to believe the same for human hearing. Audiophiles actually think that they can hear differences between SACD and DVD-audio [or for that matter and redbook CD]. The general public can't even hear a difference between CD and MP3. In a double-blind test not one of you Blu-ray fanboys would be able to tell the difference between the two HD video formats to save your life. It's purely subjective. And please spare me all the videophile/audiophile reasons why a scientific ABX test is invalid for video/audio testing. And that's why I stated "The majority of the public..." in my post and not videophiles/audiophiles. The public readily admits that they can not see/hear any differences in these audio and video formats. They just don't have those miracle eyes and ears! You can keep thinking in terms of a phile and believe you see/hear whatever you want but the format(s) can not survive on philes alone.
;0)
> > > "Blu-ray will have price parity and probable features superiority within the year." < < <
Oscar, you may be missing the point that HD-DVD players will almost certainly continue to drop in price at the same time Blu-ray manufacturers reduce prices. When Blue-ray incrementally drops below $200 I suspect HD players will be in a better position to drop below $100 on average. Of course neither of us know how this will play out, but the upside for both formats is that cheaper players will attract new buyers and increase the likelihood of survival of both.
FTR, I'm still convinced that reasonably priced dual format players are the long term solution to the format war. Once the need to purchase two separate players disappears the studio exclusivity issue will vanish as well and then mainstream consumers will be less inclined to sit on the sidelines waiting for both camps to get over their competitive hissy-fit.
As far as features superiority, that isn't set in stone either, because I'm sure that both formats will continue to improve with each successive generation.
Cheers,
AuPh
They can't do much more within the 30G capacity limitation. The special features for Blu-ray are still lacking but profile 1.1 will start to level the "special-feature" field and I expect Blu-ray will eventually have the better features. Not that I care for the features, but I'm finding out my nephews/nieces/rest of the folks actually enjoyed the IME and "observational puzzles" set up for "Bourne Ultimatum".
HD DVD needs the 51G disc if it's even viable. It's probably the only way they have a shot at wooing Disney. But even if's possible with 1st,2nd,3rd generation HD DVD players, they still have the bandwidth limitation to deal with. Of course, a lot people don't see this as an issue. YMMV.
Mass market economies of scale will drop Blu-ray players below $99 if it ever takes off, that's the way electronics technology packaged by cheap Chinese labor has been working. (OTOH, I expect rising energy and associated shipping costs to eventually neutralize Chinese cheap labor manufacturing, but that's another topic).
Dual format players ? It's going to stay expensive until it's perfectly clear both formats are here to stay, and that's not a given anytime soon.
BD players won't be as cheap as HD DVD players. Even 1.0 players aren't. Sure, there will be an occasional sale, but they won't be as cheap. The manufacturers don't want to sell them cheap. They would have no reason to make them if you take away the high profits. That's the whole point of BD.> > > The only issue is has this technical superiority manifested itself in discernible PQ/SQ differences? < < <
It certainly does not manifest itself as a difference on my 1080p TV.
Jack
EDIT: As for features, where are all of the 1.1 and 2.0 compliant players? Why has it taken the BDA over a year to get where HD DVD was when it launched?
Here in Australia the Toshiba players are dearer than in the US. So of course are the BD players but the difference between them is nowhere near the same and it seems from what I've seen that Toshiba—note: HD DVD released 2 months after BD here, not months before it as in the US—simply pegged the price of their cheapest machine around $100 Australian or so under the cheapest BD player and have kept it there. There other prices are in the same price range as BD and sale prices occasionally seem to bring a BD machine down to the same price as the cheapest Toshiba or very close to it.
I'd say that parity, or very close to it, already exists here. I suspect that the price of HD DVD machines in the US is artificially low as HD DVD tries to capture the lead in a significant market. They'll probably continue to keep them artificially low while the format war rages but if neither side wins and the outcome is co-existence I would definitely expect you to see parity in the US.
Even while the format war continues, I would expect to see the price gap narrow between HD DVD and BD in the US. As prices get lower, there's less room to make large reductions in pricing and the gap has to narrow. One side will always have to have the cheapest machine but when the rest of the machines on that side fall into the same price range as the competing side as is the case here in Australia, it's arguable that parity has effectively been achieved unless you're want to see exact equality of price at the lowest level. I expect the situation in the US will end up mirroring the situation here at some point if it already does not.
David Aiken
> > > I suspect that the price of HD DVD machines in the US is artificially low as HD DVD tries to capture the lead in a significant market. < < <
That's the point. Here in the US, toshiba is willing to accept a razor thin margin. I don't think the BD player manufacturers are willing to do that. Hell, Sony is selling the PS3 at a *loss*, and they still can't match HD DVD player prices.> > > They'll probably continue to keep them artificially low while the format war rages but if neither side wins and the outcome is co-existence I would definitely expect you to see parity in the US. < < <
Yes, HD DVD player prices will be kept low. Eventually BD players may reach parity, but I doubt it will be in the next year, and only if China starts making them.
Jack
EDIT: The new Denon is $2K. The newest Sony, the ES model is > $1K, and its only video 1.0. It looks like prices are going up. Where are all the cheap BD players?
New technologies fall in price as they become more entrenched. It happens with every single product from the wheel to cellphones, and it's truly bizarre that you think blu-ray is in its own unique category, distinct from everything else known to man. There is nothing about 1.1 or 2.0 that makes it more expensive than HD DVD players. And as far as that goes, my player was upgraded to 1.1 for free without even leaving its shelf. A similar upgrade will bring it to 2.0 compliance and any future firmware advance. It's a nonissue.> > It certainly does not manifest itself as a difference on my 1080p TV. < <
Are you sure you have enough experience viewing material optimized for both formats to make that call? Industry insiders who do have that experience disagree with you on that. And then there is the issue of audio content, which you can only address by admitting you don't really care about it.
-------------"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)
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Unfortunately, it's pretty confusing to consumers.
-------------"I have found that if you love life, life will love you back." -Arthur Rubinstein (1887-1982)
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