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In Reply to: RE: Not so good news for Blu-ray according to recent poll. posted by Audiophilander on May 20, 2008 at 02:25:05
Quote 1: "Harris Interactive surveyed 2,529 U.S. adults from April 7 through 15, and found that only four percent actually own a Blu-ray player."
Quote 2: "Five percent of those asked currently own the PlayStation 3."
Hmmmm. Only 4% of the 2,529 people polled own a BD player yet 5% of the same 2529 own a PS3 which is a BD player. They could at least have been honest and said 9% of the people polled own a player capable of playing BD discs but that 55% of the players were PS3's and that not all of those PS3s were used for playing BD movies. Even better, they could actually have asked how many of those PS3's were actually being used for playing BD movies.
That's the first problem.
Second problem. They say "Only nine percent of those asked plan to buy a Blu-ray player within the next year." Well, for a start they don't say how many people were planning to buy a PS3 since they didn't class it as a BD player in the first round of figures. That would probably increase player numbers considerably more. Then, if only 4% of people currently own BD players—ignoring the PS3—another 9% buying players in the next year slightly more than trebles that 4% and, even including all PS3s in the current figure, a 9% BD player uptake in the next 12 months doubles the numbers and those numbers would have to go higher than that when new PS3's are taken into account, unless of course they're playing unfair with the numbers and including PS3s in the 9% when they didn't include them in the 4% figure for players in the first set of numbers.
Not good number crunching there.
BD has been around for nearly 2 years now and for the first 20 odd months of that period there was a format war going on which certainly scared some people away. For those that didn't stay away, numbers were split between BD and HD DVD. An uptake of 9% of people buying BD players—excluding the PS3—in the next year, a doubling of uptake over the first 2 years, does represent an exponential growth rate and that's not too bad, especially if PS3 numbers are also swelling the figures. Put that 4% of BD players, 5% of PS3s, and another 9% uptake of BD players together and you've got an 18% total after 3 years, say 20% or more if you add PS3s over the next year in as well. That's better than a fifth of the population which isn't too bad a bit over 1 year after the format war ended. I'd actually be inclined to view those figures with some optimism.
Of course the big question mark in my analysis is how many of the 5% with PS3s are watching BD movies on them and it looks like they didn't ask that question. Given that fact and the way they reported the numbers they did get, I have to wonder whether the people who designed that particular survey managed to get the right questions together to actually get useful information. I have more than my share of doubts that they did.
You say "I suspect that Blu-ray's window of opportunity is between seven months and a year to grab wider market acceptance as the next generation high resolution format". What would you regard as an acceptable figure for "wider market acceptance"? Obviously you don't see trebling the numbers of non-PS3 players as a sufficient increase so what would you see as that, and why do you say within 7 to 12 months? What's so magic about that period in your mind?
My feeling is that regardless of where things are at in 12 months time, I don't think the public will welcome another competing format into the marketplace within 18 months of the end of the last format war. I don't see them as being willing to go through the same kind of problems and doubts as the last format war raised that soon after it ended and I suspect another format war that soon would really kill things off. I think BD is it for a 1920 x 1080 HD video format and any new format would have to offer better resolution than that, which would also require even higher definition displays than we now have. I don't see a push for a higher definition format within the next few years so I see BD as it for that period.
What I'd like to see is a much better survey counting current stand-alone players and PS3s separately, counting how many current PS3s are being used for watching BD movies, and gathering similar data on intentions for the next 12 months so that what we have is not info about players which raises questions because of the PS3 and whether it should be regarded as a player or not, but which actually gives us a figure for how many people are buying BD movies because they won't be doing that if they're not playing them. That figure is much more important than the data this survey provides, since it leaves us still wondering what the actual uptake for BD video actually is.
David Aiken
Follow Ups:
I tend to think that the poll is a fairly good cross section even if the size of the group polled is a little smaller than I'd like to see.
> > > 'You say "I suspect that Blu-ray's window of opportunity is between seven months and a year to grab wider market acceptance as the next generation high resolution format". What would you regard as an acceptable figure for "wider market acceptance"? Obviously you don't see trebling the numbers of non-PS3 players as a sufficient increase so what would you see as that, and why do you say within 7 to 12 months? What's so magic about that period in your mind?' < < <
My speculation about the 7 to 12 month window has to do with holiday expectations and the economy now that we're down to one format. Please excuse the political analogy, but it's sort of like the expectations for Obama against McCain after Hillary has been knocked out of the running; it's all on his shoulders to prove himself just like it's on Blu-ray to prove itself after winning the format war.
The economy is a factor that all electronics manufacturers have to take into account without benefit of predictable outcome since DVDs and related HT products are a luxury and among the first items that suffer during economically stressed times. I suspect that sales figures in November and December will either convince the industry that inroads are being made for mass market acceptance or that high resolution format sales have peaked in this shaky economy.
Pricing becomes an even more crucial factor if trying to market a new and "better" technology since up-converting standard DVD players are fairly recent addition to the mix for average consumers. Up-converting players can be purchased for a LOT less than any Blu-ray player and can extend the enjoyment of acquired DVD collections making higher resolution formats seem a frivolous expense in hard times. Watch the holiday season very closely for indications.
The bottom line: With the pricing of both Blu-ray media and players so much higher than standard DVDs the incentive to transition may not exist beyond niche markets.
AuPh
I can appreciate the holiday season factor. As for the economy, it may simply prevent things from taking off or alternatively simply delay uptake until there's a bit of a recovery.
I think there's a danger in being too US-centric here. I'm in Australia and the economy is not quite as rough as that in the US at the moment. BD take-up here during the format war stage was better than in the US relative to HD-DVD because the HD-DVD people didn't release anything here until 2 months after BD released their first players and discs, so they were the latecomers. They kept a low profile and HD-DVD player prices remained high with the cheapest player usually staying around $100 Australian less than the PS3 and the other players priced similarly to some of the BD stand-alone players. HD-DVD probably lost the war here they day they decided not to release their wares within a month or two of the US release and to let BD get in first because that seemed to set the standard for the rest of their decisions in this market: stupid. There's also Japan and Europe. The US is a big market but a bit less than half the world market if I remember from the last lot of figures I saw so a slow take-up or even a bit of a stall there probably won't be critical if things elsewhere in the world proceed more favourably.
In the end it will catch on or it won't. SACD didn't catch on but discs are still being released so not catching on may not kill the format and we could be left with a niche market as you suggest, but then good quality audio and video have always been niche markets. The majority of the population are happy with less than that. The high end continues to survive in both fields and that's an indication that there is a reasonable sized market there.
I wouldn't be getting overly negative yet, and I do think that there is some scope for cautious optimism if you look at things from a world perspective rather than simply the local US perspective.
David Aiken
Your opinion is based on an article that does a poor job of interpreting it.
I read the methodology and results document on the pollster's website. It was good work - methodology is sound, results are solid, conclusions are in line with the data.
I just read the methodology and results too. Take a look at the first question which was "Which of the following devices do you own?" Respondents can tick more than one item in their response and 2 of the items listed are "Sony Playstation 3" and "A Blu-ray disc player". Note that the BD player item did not include the words "other than the PS3".
I don't think it's necessarily clear from the data table that PS3 owners without a separate stand-alone BD player didn't indicate "yes" to both items. There may well be overlap between the PS3 owners and the BD player owners.
Having said that, the data and report on the Harris Interactive site are a hell of a lot better and clearer than the report that AuPh provided the link to.
David Aiken
Your statements are ridiculous. The poll specifically included the PS3 in the hi-rez category ("Few report owning Blu-ray disc players (4%), Sony PlayStation 3 (5%), HD DVD players (6%) and the HD-DVD drive for the Xbox 360 (1% have external drive while 9% have an Xbox 360").
The poll even asked respondents if they planned to buy a "Sony PlayStation 3 which plays Blu-ray discs and Internet connectivity..." for crying out loud!
The PS3 can indeed play Blu-ray movies (and despite your assertion, that fact was clearly reflected in the poll questions), but its primary purpose is as a gaming console, and that is its primary target market. That's how most people think of it. When I think of a "Blu-ray disc player," I think of something like the Sony BDP-S300, which is targeted specifically at the Blu-ray video market. That's how most people think of it.
The PS3 deserves its own category, just like the other gaming consoles, which the poll properly reflected.
If the poll did not allow respondents to select more than one category of devices owned, your position would hold water, but that is not the case. You may not like the results, but you have yet to mount any sort of cogent argument against them.
Yes, the poll did ask if people were planning to buy a "Sony PlayStation 3 which plays Blu-ray discs and Internet connectivity..." but that wasn't asked in question 1 and question 1 did not specifically state that the BD player asked about was not to include PS3's. People answer questions in order based on the information in the question being asked and in previous questions. In Question 1 it is not clear that the BD player category excludes the PS3. They're asking about a lot of technology and people are as likely to answer based on what a product does as what it is, so a person with a PS3 and no other BD player may respond yes to both questions.
Obviously you've never done research which required the development of a questionnaire and the analysis of responses. I have, only once for a research project associated with a post graduate qualification, and believe me it's not easy to get a questionnaire right. You learn very quickly that if it's possible to misinterpret a question or make a mistake about exactly what is meant, some people will do exactly that. Questionnaire design is a lot harder than you think. These people were asking questions about a number of technologies including BD. It wasn't specifically a BD survey and that probably makes it easier for some ambiguity to creep into the questions.
I actually want to see BD be successful since I bought a PS3 as a BD player a couple of months ago and I'm prepared to live with that decision. My concern here is that I don't think the questionnaire was unambiguous in Question 1 and that makes me wonder about whether the figure for the total number of people polled with a device that plays BD discs is the sum of the number saying they had a PS3 and the number saying they had a BD player or whether there is some overlap in those 2 groups with some PS3s being counted twice and the actual number of people with players actually being lower than it looks. Given that I own a BD player I should be happy to add the 2 stated results together to get the highest possible number and not question them as I am doing. When I question the figures, I'm asking whether they actually put the total numbers for people with BD capable machines too high so don't say to me "You may not like the results". I'm actually suggesting that the numbers are less favourable for BD than the survey is suggesting and, as I said, I would like to see it succeed so it would actually be in my interests to shut up and not question the results in the way I'm questioning them if I wanted to take a really pro BD stance and ignore facts.
David Aiken
> > People answer questions in order based on the information in the question being asked and in previous questions. In Question 1 it is not clear that the BD player category excludes the PS3. They're asking about a lot of technology and people are as likely to answer based on what a product does as what it is, so a person with a PS3 and no other BD player may respond yes to both questions. < <
All assumptions on your part, all completely unfounded.
This was an online survey, not a list read over the telephone.
> > Obviously you've never done research which required the development of a questionnaire and the analysis of responses. I have, only once for a research project associated with a post graduate qualification, < <
Obviously you don't know what you're talking about, because I've done this type of stuff more times than I can count. In fact I've done polls and surveys professionally, not just as a student exercise for a grade.
Harris has been in business since 1975, and has a stellar reputation. They know what they are doing. Forgive me for saying this, but you have zero credibility in this area. I'll take their conclusions about their poll over your assumptions about their poll, thank you very much.
> > I actually want to see BD be successful since I bought a PS3 as a BD player a couple of months ago < <
It's been pretty clear why you don't like the poll results, and I can understand that - you are financially and emotionally invested. However, due to your bias you are offering an argument based on assumptions that lack foundation. It should be obvious to anyone without a dog in this fight that the poll was well-done, and if you weren't letting your bias cloud your judgment your student experiences should allow you to see that both the methodology and results are sound.
"This was an online survey, not a list read over the telephone."
So, do you think everyone reads the survey document from start to finish first, then goes back to the beginning to start answering questions? Most read the first question, answer it, read the second, answer it, and go on from question to question that way. Pretty much the same as answering questions read over the phone.
"Obviously you don't know what you're talking about, because I've done this type of stuff more times than I can count. In fact I've done polls and surveys professionally, not just as a student exercise for a grade."
Did you simply administer the polls and surveys, or did you design the questionnaires. They're very different things. As for my study, it ended up being published in a professional peer-reviewed journal so it was of an acceptable quality to meet professional standards.
"Harris has been in business since 1975, and has a stellar reputation. They know what they are doing."
I'm in Australia so I don't know Harris, and I'm not questioning their reputation, but no-one consistently delivers work of exactly the same standard in everything they do. Some things are always better than others and that's true for the best of firms as for the worst. I'm saying the wording of one question may lead to some people to report ownership of the same device twice, overinflating the result and giving a better result for BD than may actually be the case for the survey sample. I also said that they asked about players and not about whether the respondents with PS3s used their PS3 to watch BD movies. Some gamers may not watch BD movies and simply counting PS3s may give an overinflated result when it comes to considering them as BD movie players.
"It's been pretty clear why you don't like the poll results, and I can understand that - you are financially and emotionally invested. However, due to your bias you are offering an argument based on assumptions that lack foundation."
If I'm so invested as to want to discredit the results for that reason, why am I doing so in a way that would reduce the number of machines being used as BD players by respondents and actually make the situation look worse for people like me who have financially invested in BD? If I didn't like the results and wanted to argue against them because of my investment, I'd be arguing that they under-reported rather than over-reported the number of BD players owned by respondents. Your argument here doesn't make sense.
David Aiken
I'm so used to reading the emotional drivel from Blu-ray fanboys that I made a (bad) assumption about your motivations in questioning the results. Sorry.
As to the rest: I still believe your analysis of the poll methodology is faulty. And yes, I did indeed design several polls, not just simply administer them.
-------------Call it, friendo.
> > U.S. adults are more likely to purchase a Sony PlayStation 3 that plays Blu-ray discs and has Internet access for $399 (11%) or an original Blu-ray disc player without connectivity for the same price (10%) versus a new Blu-ray disc player with Internet for $500-$650 (4%) < <Of course consumers will go for the cheaper technology. You need a poll to tell you that?
The problem is that the poll doesn't take into account cheaper blu-ray players on the market and in the pipeline, such as the $299 Magnavox sold at Wallmart. Even if you buy into the results, you have to acknowledge they're out of date.
-------------Call it, friendo.
- http://www.electronichouse.com/article/wal_mart_delivers_magnavox_funai_298_blu_ray_player/ (Open in New Window)
> > > Quote 1: "Harris Interactive surveyed 2,529 U.S. adults from April 7 through 15, and found that only four percent actually own a Blu-ray player."Quote 2: "Five percent of those asked currently own the PlayStation 3." < < <
Its been known for quite a while, that not all PS3 owners know it is a BD player. In fact, about a year or so ago, less than 1/2 of the owners knew it was a BD player. This has been discussed here previously. It is possible, though somewhat odd, that there are still some that don't know its a BD player.> > > They could at least have been honest and said 9% of the people polled own a player capable of playing BD discs but that 55% of the players were PS3's and that not all of those PS3s were used for playing BD movies. < < <
Why do you assume that the total number of players is PS3 owners + BD player owners? Since when do stand alone players make up 45% of all BD players? That's news to me.Jack
> > Its been known for quite a while, that not all PS3 owners know it is a BD player. In fact, about a year or so ago, less than 1/2 of the owners knew it was a BD player. < <
Yeah, I wouldn't trust that poll too much either. Regardless, the number discrepancy that David picked up on shows it wasn't those participating in the poll, but the pollsters themselves who were confused and were reporting the results inaccurately.
> > This has been discussed here previously. It is possible, though somewhat odd, that there are still some that don't know its a BD player. < <
It's possible that some folks conducting the poll didn't know, and therefore didn't know how to tally the answers or ask the questions correctly. The results, if not the entire poll, are flawed.
> > Why do you assume that the total number of players is PS3 owners + BD player owners? Since when do stand alone players make up 45% of all BD players? That's news to me. < <
It shouldn't be up for debate what the results of the poll were. The fact that the pollsters couldn't deliver straightforward results indicates there is a problem.
-------------Call it, friendo.
> > > Yeah, I wouldn't trust that poll too much either. < < <
Big surprise. You don't trust anything that doesn't rave about BD.
> > > Regardless, the number discrepancy that David picked up on shows it wasn't those participating in the poll, but the pollsters themselves who were confused and were reporting the results inaccurately. < < <
I disagree. Unless you can prove otherwise, the pollsters are reporting what they are told, so if there is a problem, the people being polled are the ones in error.
> > > The results, if not the entire poll, are flawed. < < <
I'm sure you think so, but you haven't shown their methodology is flawed.
> > > It shouldn't be up for debate what the results of the poll were. < < <
Correct. Do you have sales figures showing that standalones are 45% of all BD players, including the PS3? Does anyone? Show me and I'll believe it. Otherwise, David is way off base.
> > > The fact that the pollsters couldn't deliver straightforward results indicates there is a problem. < < <
we are getting this second hand-an article about a poll. It sounds like you have issues with the article more than the actual poll.
Jack
"I disagree. Unless you can prove otherwise, the pollsters are reporting what they are told, so if there is a problem, the people being polled are the ones in error."
I have no doubt the pollsters are reporting what they are told, but what they are told is in response to a standard set of questions that everyone who was polled was asked. If there's a problem, it isn't because the people who were polled didn't answer the questions properly, it's because someone who designed the questionnaire didn't come up with a good set of questions.
If you do a poll and the results aren't clear, then the problem usually lies with the poll and the questions asked. You should be designing the questions in such a way that the responses leave no doubt as to what the data means.
David Aiken
> > I'm sure you think so, but you haven't shown their methodology is flawed. < <
Well, they asked their "what would you buy" questions without factoring in the $299 BD player, so the results are already out of date and don't reflect current market conditions. Sure seems like a flaw to me.
-------------Call it, friendo.
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