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208.58.2.83
For Blu-ray to really “win” it has to do more than bask in the fact that it sent HD-DVD packing. It has to prove that the mass market perceives that it needs, wants, and is willing to pay for a high-definition optical player. This needs to happen with the same volume with which DVD replaced VHS and Laser Disc. That may be possible, but merely eliminating one competitor doesn’t mean that the road ahead is clear.
Follow Ups:
Analysts predict blu-ray sales will overtake DVD sales in 2012.
Do the math.
One format is shrinking. The other is growing. Which do you think the studios will support.
-------------Call it, friendo.
The DVD format was shrinking for the last few years, before Blu-Ray came about. In fact, that's the reason Blu-Ray and HD-DVD was created - because the studios got greedy with the new revenue stream of selling movies and the decline made them try to generate more sales.
Can't believe you're going by analysts predictions. These analysts change their predictions every month based on recent data. When Blu-Ray sales fail to take a major push, they'll adjust their predictions again.
DVD isn't going away, and Blu-Ray will remain a niche. Take that to the bank.
"DVD isn't going away, and Blu-Ray will remain a niche."
I dont think that is true. Blu-Ray will remain a niche as long as it is priced like a niche product. Once volume brings down the price, it will overtake SD dvds, and SD disks will go away. By then, everyone but grandma will have a HDTV, and will demand higher resolution. It happened to VHS, and it will happpen to SD dvd. (Yes, I know you can still get VHS here and there, but why??)
> > The DVD format was shrinking for the last few years. < <
That's a bit vague. I recently read that DVD sales have grown every year since format's inception until the numbers for '07 came out, which showed a decline. (See link at bottom.) I certainly don't believe everything I read on the internet, but those numbers seemed to be supported by reliable sources and unless you have other sources (please post) I have no reason to doubt the report.
> > In fact, that's the reason Blu-Ray and HD-DVD was created - because the studios got greedy with the new revenue stream of selling movies and the decline made them try to generate more sales. < <
While your distrust of studio motivation may seem seductive, the fact is that we have been using a 60 year old technology in NTSC that relies on relatively few lines of resolution halved (interlaced) and drawn fast enough by a cathode ray tube to trick your eye into thinking you're seeing a solid picture. Now that the processing power of home electronics is infinitely greater and display devices used for TVs are much more advanced, the time is ripe for introducing a new format that allows us to enjoy our favorite films with much better video (and audio) resolution. Anyone who has compared DVD (even upscaled) to a native 1080p picture has observed DVD to be inferior. It's time to adopt new technology, beyond NTSC's capabilities.
> > Can't believe you're going by analysts predictions. These analysts change their predictions every month based on recent data. When Blu-Ray sales fail to take a major push, they'll adjust their predictions again. < <
Actually I predict Blu-ray will grow faster than the analysts are saying, and so far it seems that is the case, helped in large part by the PS3's installed base of early adopters.
> > DVD isn't going away, and Blu-Ray will remain a niche. Take that to the bank. < <
A significant percentage (about 10%) of all sales of No Country for Old Men have been Blu-ray. Similar observations are made of other titles where the BD and DVD are released simultaneously. Do you really think those BD numbers won't increase as the installed base of BD players increases?
Oh, and since all BD players also play DVD (and upscale them), there is no push to make DVD go away. The fact seems to be that the public is slowly losing interest with standard definition and slowly gaining interest in high definition. If you look at the FCC's mandate to end traditional broadcasts in 2009, you'll start to understand why.
-------------Call it, friendo.
You'd think the whole "spinning disc" would eventually be replaced by card media like SD card. How long before they can crank the storage capacity of these cards to match a Blu-ray disc? No drawers, moving parts or lasers.
Makes sense?
The original advantage of optical disks was that they could be stamped out quickly and cheaply (although initial setup costs are very high), whereas 25-50 gigabytes of solid state storage is still kind of pricey. But 7 megabit DSL pricing has become pretty reasonable in my area, and high-def rentals from Apple have become a viable alternative to Blu-Ray as far as I'm concerned. I still want physical media for movies in my permanent collection, but that may comprise only 5-10% of what I watch.
I was delighted to find that the big independent video rental place in town now carries Blu-Ray, but costs for a 3-day rental are comparable to iTunes Music Store (30 days to watch, 24 hours to finish), and of course there's the physical media to be returned.
.... somewhere. Yeah, they're not chep (now), but in four years???!!!
Plus imagine the savings in storage space? Boggles the mind.
John Crossett___
It sounds like English, but I can't understand a word you're saying.
That's the point I was trying to make in my reply below. I'd think it's very likely that both DVD and BD will be displaced with something "better" by 2012. Will the card be as small as an SD card, hard to say. Will it be a spinning disc, I doubt it. I think something in between size-wise though. Who knows.
The format development and ensuing war between HD DVD and Blu-ray are not something studios, manufacturers and consumers will want to repeat anytime soon. Standardization is very difficult in the industry. The fact is that if Blu-ray fails, the alternative is downloadable/streaming HD that has horrible artifacts and is unlikely to be of much better quality than DVD barring a complete overhaul of the existing copper wire infrastructure.
If you like 1080p, blu-ray is the way to go.
-------------Call it, friendo.
Four years is a long ways away. I wouldn't be at all surprised if both are gone by then. :)
I'd also think DVD sales are shrinking due to the fact that people have their base set of DVD's that they enjoy most, thus sales are just tapering off. For me, this is exactly what happened with both CD's and DVD's. I barely buy either nowadays as my base set of likeable discs is in my room.
In the late 80s-early 90s, people were leaving the record stores with armloads of classical CDs. Once they had the standard repetoire in hand, sales plummetted. Same thing with movies - everyone has a few dozen "must own" movies - movies that they want to watch over and over throughout the years, be they classics like "Casablanca" or childhood favorites. Now that they have them, sales of DVDs are dropping. It's only going to get worse, although at least studios have the advantage over music CDs of being able to re-release the same titles in special editions with "extra features" to encourage fans to buy them again.
There are still only a handful of Bluray titles I would want to own at DVD prices, let alone $29-$35 a disc. I am not willing to pay full price for any Bluray disc. The few I own were either free or on sale for at least $10 off. I would bite on a couple dozen currently available titles at $14.99 though.
> > Four years is a long ways away. < <
Not really. DVD is a mature technology, BD is a new technology. Four years is a relatively fast time to catch up. I think it took about the same timeframe for CD to supplant LP.
> > I wouldn't be at all surprised if both are gone by then. :) < <
I suppose you could be right, but I don't see what there is to smile about if that's the case. Streaming/downloadable video is worse than DVD quality. Who wants to watch that on their brand new HDTV or listen to compressed audio on their nice HT systems?
> > I'd also think DVD sales are shrinking due to the fact that people have their base set of DVD's that they enjoy most, thus sales are just tapering off. For me, this is exactly what happened with both CD's and DVD's. I barely buy either nowadays as my base set of likeable discs is in my room. < <
Of course. That's what happens when mature formats pass their peak. Studios have been successful in offsetting this by "remastering" and repackaging their biggest sellers every couple of years. But with high def here now, few will want to upgrade their DVD to another DVD. That's where Blu-ray comes in. It has legs and the quality is fantastic.
-------------Call it, friendo.
Streaming/downloadable video is worse than DVD quality. Who wants to watch that on their brand new HDTV or listen to compressed audio on their nice HT systems?
#1 - You can download torrents that are BD quality already, and as more and more people get into HD that number is only going to skyrocket.
#2 - Considering that many people are using crappy speakers with their giant HDTV's, compression in audio doesn't matter to a large number of people I'd say, and a good number of people probably don't know if they're getting the best in PQ, either :-D
Blu-ray ultimately, I think, is doomed by the downloading market...as the hard-drive based distribution idea gets more and more popular, optical discs like BD are going to be in trouble.
How quickly can you download 30-50G HD movies ?
And I suspect with HDMI 1.3 compliant receivers and source players, even J6P with crappy speakers will notice the benefits of uncompressed/lossless audio.
With Apple TV, I get the impression that the biggest limiting factor isn't the pipe, but Apple's servers. I have had HD movies require anywhere from 2-7 hours to download, while SD generally takes about an hour. Either way, you can begin watching after 2% has downloaded, but I prefer to wait in order to ensure 100% glitch free viewing.
These aren't 30-50 gigabyte downloads because they're compressed and lack additional languages, features, etc. Quality-wise, they're not as good as the best B-Ds, but they're competitive with middle-of-the-pack ones, of which there are plenty.
> > Four years is a long ways away. < <
Not really. DVD is a mature technology, BD is a new technology. Four years is a relatively fast time to catch up. I think it took about the same timeframe for CD to supplant LP.
---I feel that as time and technology progress formats may have a shorter life span. Who knows what may happen in four years (new formats?) was my meaning in other words. A more 3 dimensional presentation? Maybe a stretch, but who knows.
> > I wouldn't be at all surprised if both are gone by then. :) < <
I suppose you could be right, but I don't see what there is to smile about if that's the case. Streaming/downloadable video is worse than DVD quality. Who wants to watch that on their brand new HDTV or listen to compressed audio on their nice HT systems?
---The smile goes back to my first reply; that a better technology will arise, not that we'll be using something worse.
> > I'd also think DVD sales are shrinking due to the fact that people have their base set of DVD's that they enjoy most, thus sales are just tapering off. For me, this is exactly what happened with both CD's and DVD's. I barely buy either nowadays as my base set of likeable discs is in my room. < <
Of course. That's what happens when mature formats pass their peak. Studios have been successful in offsetting this by "remastering" and repackaging their biggest sellers every couple of years. But with high def here now, few will want to upgrade their DVD to another DVD. That's where Blu-ray comes in. It has legs and the quality is fantastic.
---I personally have never bought into a "new release" DVD. I think many people (such as myself) tire of this, new formats included. I'm sure the quality of BD is fantastic, and perhaps it will stick around. But even as a semi-fanatic I can't be bothered. If my old X1 PJ bulb dies I'll definately buy an HD PJ in its place. Will I buy a blue-ray player at the same time, hm, maybe. But only if Blockbuster rents them in equal volumes (and similar rental pricing) and the selling prices are basically equal to DVD at the time. I put very little hours on my PJ though, so it could be a few years still. Now I'm going to smile again. :)
a
What its going to take is for the price of the disks to come down under $20. I have not yet bought a BD player for that reason. I dont want to pay 30-40 bucks per disk, when SD DVDs look so good on my 50" Panasonic plasma. Also, number of titles is still limited. Give me LOTR and the first SW trilogy, and I would pay 40/disk, but not for garden variety movies.
is the average consumer going to notice a difference between SD and hi-def on his 42" screen?
...if it's an HDTV set.
-------------Call it, friendo.
They can be had for half that. J&R just had a sale for $7.99 per select BD titles. I've never paid more than $25, which was the cost of SACD when I adopted that.
-------------Call it, friendo.
Yes, I know you can get 'select' titles for less. But new releases need to be under $20, like SD DVDs are now. I still go into some stores and see the new release BDs for $39.95, and still see a lot at 29.95. Titles under 20 bucks are still rare, and when you do see them, they are older or less desirable titles.
.
A good dvd in a good dvd player looks good. I am pretty happy with what I have.Now that the price of dvd's has come down I am on a bit of a buying spree.
Something I couldn't do with the more expensive blu-ray discs.I also have questions about durability. The pits are about 6 times smaller, so a scratch can do several times the damage. I wonder if this will impact the rental market; because renters are very careless in how they handle discs.
I may upgrade down the road, but we are talking 3 or 4 years at the earliest.
I am also worried what a higher def TV will do to the picture quality on the old TV shows I like to watch.
That may be one of their better features.
Jack
Right now there are > 10 million Blu-ray players in the hands of consumers that will play Blu-ray, DVD, CD and game media. Where was DVD in 1998 and can any DVD player make that claim even after 10 years on the market?
--- Right now there are > 10 million Blu-ray players in the hands of consumers that will play Blu-ray, DVD, CD and game media. ---
10 million Blu-Ray players in consumers homes, yet the amount of Blu-Ray movie purchases are miniscule. When you depend on a videogame console to sell movies, you're in trouble.
Then we can discuss a completely different subject (software output).
it may well be shooting themselves in the foot with software support.
I think one of the major reasons for SACD never really catching on was simply that Sony didn't issue a significant proportion of their own new releases in SACD format as well as CD. Yes, re-issues of old material sells but many aren't going to pay for a second copy of something they already own. You really need a high proportion of new material to 'break the ice' in my view. I think this is an issue for the other studios as well.
I'd hate to see Sony repeat that blunder with BD. I just bought a PS3 a week ago as a movie machine and I'm very happy with its performance on both BD and DVD. So far the few discs I have are duplicates of DVDs I own. Unfortunately here in Australia the range of discs available is still not good and a lot of what is available in the US is not available here. The region system also doesn't help. What would have me buying more discs is a solid new release schedule which goes a long way towards duplicating the upcoming DVD release schedule, and that still seems a way off here in Australia.
But I think it's that factor which may make or break BD in the near future and that's the time frame in which it really has to start making its mark. I don't think many people will seriously consider it until the range of new releases is comparable to what's coming out on DVD and the market does need to build. Wait too long to do that and people won't be interested if and when you finally decide to deliver the software. People buy players to buy software and you need to have the software there. Sony makes both and if their software side doesn't support the hardware side by getting the releases out there, they're shooting themselves in the foot again, and badly.
David Aiken
a
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